By Dorcas Sarkozy
Canary in a coal mine, a case of “all politics is local” or is it too early to tell?
Show me a political analyst or pundit who claims that “they predicted” the outcome of the races in Ugenya and Embakasi South and I’ll show you someone who is either a liar or one who who flipped a coin and guessed correctly – unless they pulled the same shit Jubilee is known to pull in all elections and rigged the outcomes in favor of a predetermined outcome!
That’s my assessment of the just-announced results in the Ugenya and Embakasi S.
I’d argue that ODM’s Irshard Sumra loss to Wiper’s Julius Mawathe in the Embakasi South by-election a case of the latter i.e. politics being local.
Sumra vs. Mawathe in Embakasi? Really? Isn’t Embakasi S. more a Wiper stronghold than an ODM one and if not, isn’t it more proximal to Wiper’s base than it is to ODM’s? I’d argue the former ergo the assertion that the race favored the local candidate hence in favor of Wiper’s Mawathe.
The Ugenya race is more the canary in the coal mine i.e. a warning shot across the bow of ODM’s honcho’s that voters of the region are done with business as usual – especially in the wake of the controversial and increasingly meaningless “handshake”. Add to the “handshake”, demonstrable incompetence and corruptibility of nearly ALL of ODM-affiliated candidates – from governor all the way to MCA – throughout Nyanza – and you have voters who are pissed at anything related to the Orange Democratic Movement!
All told, any appreciable length of time, in political discourse and political happenings, is the proverbial “lifetime” i.e. a lot can happen between now and the presidential race that all are calling using the outcome of the two by-elections TWO YEARS ahead of time!
Let me end by saying this based on my layman’s reading of the tea leaves as foretold by these two races: Raila Odinga is best advised to take heed – on ALL fronts – especially his base.E