By Anwa Sadat via FB
The year was 2002, Moi was outgoing president and Uhuru was his preferred successor. Voting was manual, and backup was manual. The army, police, intelligence, and ECK was controlled by KANU and Moi, but Uhuru lost ( supported by 90% Kikuyus and 85% Kalenjines- look for the statistics of 2002 elections)
In 2007, Kibaki was the incumbent. He controlled the army, police,intelligence, and Election commission. Voting was manual and backup was manual, but Kibaki lost ( supported by 150% Kikuyus and an assortment of other rigged votes)
In 2013, Kibaki was the outgoing president and UhuRuto was his preferred successor . Voting was manual and backup was manual. The army, the police, intelligence, and Election commission were with UhuRuto, but UhuRuto were awarded 50+1% ( supported by 150% Kikuyus and 95% Kalenjines)
The political outcomes of 2007 and 2013 were largely so, because between 2002 to 2013, though there was some form of corruption, there was also a modest growth of the economy. And so the revolution was largely political. History has shown that in situations where the desire for change is largely driven just by the desire for good governance, Incumbents may be successful in rigging themselves to power because the “middle class” feels no need for change.
In 2017, UhuRuto are incumbents. UhuRuto control the army, police, intelligence, and IEBC. Voting will be manual and backup will be manual. UhuRuto will lose ( supported by 200% Kikuyus and 85% Kalenjines) because of the same reasons that Uhuru lost in 2002.
In the run up to 2002 elections, Kanu looted kenya dry. The economy was stagnant, unemployment was at 47% , inflation was high, everything was falling apart. Kenyans unanimously agreed that another day of Kanu and Uhuru in power was an existential threat they could not afford. So for the sake of their selves and the future generations, they rejected Uhuru. It was both political and economic revolution.
In 2017, the economy is stagnant; theft of public resources is at levels never witnessed in the history of kenya; the health care system is failing; the tax burden on citizens is rising; inflation is through the roof; unemployment and underemployment is at 60%; the shilling is at all time low; Nairobi stock exchange has lost over Kshs 500 million just in a couple of months; doctors are on strike; the government cannot afford to pay salaries; the prices of goods is triple since UhuRuto got into power; and there is drought. The conditions for economic revolution is everywhere.
That is why I advise CORD not to pay much attention to what method of backup is used, that is but a distraction. Your fight is not just about reforming the election process, but about forming a better Union: A kenya where all citizens who work hard, have a shot at a decent life. A society where doctors, teachers, nurses, and those who work tirelessly to make it better are rewarded and not criminals.
With that vision properly articulated, the political revolution will flow in tandem with the economic revolution about to hit kenya. The 2017 revolution is both economical and political.
And my friend, listen my friend, my friend, NO ARMY will be able to withstand against that force. UhuRuto will not only lose the elections, they will also lose power.