When IGAD then under the Chairmanship of President Uhuru Kenyatta attempted to dictate to Dr. Riek Machar the terms for Sudan Peace Agreement, adding a rider that IGAD and EAC will not recognize ‘unconstitutional means’ to capturing power, Dr. Riek Machar went back and intensified his onslaught on President Kiir.
The peace in Sudan failed then. And it failed 10 more times. IGAD pulled out of it. EAC pulled out of it. Dr. Machar removed both Kenya and Uganda as partners for peace. It took Dar-es-salaam to first ‘reconcile’ SPLM/SPLA-IO and the SPLM/SPLA government in Juba.
Then Dr. Machar started building an international coalition to understand, first and foremost, their own stakes in South Sudan.Soon China and America knew the war had taken a geopolitical character. The big boys, using UN, were now fully involved, with something to win or lose.
Ethiopia realized the folly of IGAD and took a neutral position, supporting both SPLA (Kirr) and SPLA-IO (Machar) in equal measure. It also hosted Machar and his men, in their thousands.
Today, as the two Sudanese Leaders signed a new agreement to form a transitional government of national unity and start the process for full stability, Kenya’s absence in Juba spoke volumes of the paper tiger we’ve become.
Conflicts where both sides can access guns, including hand propelled grenades, cannot be resolved in the image and likeness of Kenya’s 2008 National Accord. The gun is a just equalizer.
Peace to South Sudan.