Written by a friend who seeks anonymity…
WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON 30TH January (PREDICTIONS BY AN INSIDER)
One of these things could happen tomorrow. One or more actually.
1. A peaceful swearing in of Raila Odinga, which will technically mean two Presidents and soon enough, two countries. It will then be the first step towards secession of Central Province from the rest of the country (the majority don’t secede, the minority do).
2. An arrest and detention of Raila Odinga, which would launch a nationwide orgy of violence, overwhelming the police and forcing military intervention. With a military intervention, things become 50-50, because the military will make a decision that safeguards long term stability. Which means those who send them out into the streets could be their first victims.
3. An indiscriminate police orgy of shootings which end up felling some NASA leaders, including, God forbid, Raila Odinga. The consequence, will not be tribal war as many expect, but full blown factional war, with heavy artillery, in the military and security forces. This then marks the end of both Jubilee and Kenya. From Raila’s recent speeches, it is almost obvious he is going for this.
4. A last minute deal between Uhuru and Raila, which stops the swearing in and launches national dialogue. 99% of Raila supporters will not welcome this.
Certain factors play a big role on how we move forward from tomorrow….
1. Can the country stand the arrest or assassination of Raila Odinga? The answer is NO. That will mark the end of us. Raila is neither Ouko nor Mboya. In fact, even among the Luo alone, people don’t realise that both Ouko and Mboya were at variance with the community position at the times of their deaths. Yet the reaction was violent and wholesale. Raila’s would explode bang inside the security services too.
2. What side would the Kalenjin take when we go two ways tomorrow? Surprisingly, this one is easy. The Raila side! And the isolation of the Kikuyu this way immediately spells doom for them. Which means government insiders will not let this happen. Silently, the Kalenjin are very disillusioned by Jubilee lately, and forcing them to pick a side does not augur well for Jubilee.
3. Would the long term safety of the Kikuyu wealth and the Moi-Kenyatta dynasties survive this? Again, the answer is an unequivocal NO. In fact, the Raila Sacrifice would be the end of both, because it would for the first time send the country into a state where official violence and control both become ineffective.
4. What would be the best scenario to save the country? Well, it would be for Uhuru to hand back power to the rightful winner. But that won’t happen.
Wherever you are and no matter what you do, you could be seeing the last 24 hours as one country, the last 24 hours of peace as you have known it, or the last 24 hours of slavery. Depends really on which side you stand.
Catch you on the other side.