By Mukurima Muriuki via FB
A few things on this America siasa.
1. Attention now shifts to Iowa. We are 3 months to the day in 2007 when Obama announced he was running for presidency.
2.Republicans came close to winning Minnesota in 2016. This is often ignored, but Hillary Clinton won the state by only 45, 000 votes. While last Tuesday saw a Democratic Tsunami shellac Trump and his minions, Democrats lost two key Minnesota House races in First and Eighth districts. I predict Minnesota will be a swing state in 2020. The state has 10 electors. Very significant.
3.In Vermont, Bernie Sanders was reelected senator as an independent. In Congress, he caucuses with Democrats. A Republican was elected governor in Vermont. This, however, does not mean GOP will win the state come 2020.
4.In Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema became the first woman ever elected senator in the state. While doing so, she also helped Democrats flip the state from Republican control. I doubt the state will turn blue come 2020. Voters in the state still elected a Republican governor.
5. All eyes are now on Democrats. With so many candidates keen on running for presidency, you can bet they will soon turn on each other. Remember Bernie-Hillary contest? And if the party appears to favor one candidate over the others, many voters will be disenfranchised. Bernie or bust?
6. Trump can afford to lose Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and still be reelected. But he must flip Minnesota to get to 270. Trump is losing suburban women; the hockey and soccer moms who formed an important coalition that propelled him to win in some of the swing states.
7. Democrats now have control of the House. Will Nancy Pelosi be the next speaker? What are the Healthcare reforms that Democrats will initiate? What of immigration? Voters in 2020 will also be looking at what their representatives achieved. It will be a pocketbook election.
8.I know this sounds stale, but Hillary Clinton should finish what she started in 2016. She is the only candidate, so far, with the machinery and name recognition to take on Trump. She now knows Trump better, and I would bet on her beating #45 in a head to head contest. If the argument is that Trump has destroyed America’s standing in world map, who else other than Mama Chelsea, with her vast foreign policy experience to make things better?
9. Ruth Bader Ginsburg: She is 85 years old, and the oldest Supreme Court Justice. If she opts to retire in next two years, Trump will have an opportunity to pick another conservative justice. And if this happens close to 2020, this will for sure energize his base, and demoralize Democrats.
10. Democrats may win the presidency in 2020, but I doubt they will regain control of Senate. Most Republican Senators up for reelection are in deep red states. Also, I doubt Alabama will be voting for a Democrat Senator in 2020. This is a seat that will flip to GOP. There are two Senate Seats Republicans are defending in Blue States: Colorado and Maine. Chances are that Colorado flips to Democrats. In Maine, I can bet on my Mustache that Susan Collins will be reelected-just like Jon Tester, a democrat winning in Montana, a Red State.
11. Accusations of sexual misconduct will fly left, right and center next year. Sadly, most will be false, but the damage will be done. Remember Hillary Clinton being accused of practicing witchcraft and spirit cooking? I foresee Republicans making up such allegations to discredit Democratic Party candidates.
12. Can you imagine a Bernie Sanders-Beto’ O Rourke ticket?
13. The 2018 Texas Senate run was to Beto’ O Rourke what the 2004 DNC keynote speech was to Obama: national limelight and world adoration.
14. #45 will self-destruct. He is creating too many enemies along the way and betraying those who risked it all to stand with and by him at the crucial hour. Or, said differently, #45 is a boil that will soon cure itself through the natural medicines of air. The so called Trumpsters might soon get bored.
15. Have you been to Kirinyaga recently?