By: Pedro Tish PhD
My projections show an overwhelming upper hand for Raila Odinga in Eastern Province.
The following is the breakdown for Eastern, where CORD will take Ukambani in a clean sweep as a revolt against Jubilee’s mistreatment of their son Kalonzo Musyoka.
Marsabit, Isiolo, Moyale, or the upper Eastern will definitely be CORDED.
Ukambani is an uncontested CORDED territory as observed even by Mutahi Ngunyi’s Tyranny of Numbers.
| EASTERN PROVINCE | CORD | JUBILEE | CORD | JUBILEE |
| Marasabit-Isiolo-Moyale | Â 157,025 | |||
| Meru-Embu-Mbeere | Â 866,329 | |||
| Ukambani | Â 1,069,529 | |||
| TOTAL | 1,226,554 | 866,239 | 58.6% |
This is important because in 2007, Raila lost Eastern, where he only won 5% mostly from the Marasabit-Isiolo-Moyale belt.
However with Kalonzo’s Ukambani in his column, he is poised to take Eastern with a bang’, plus retain his dominance of the Upper Eastern vote.
It is inhabited by Samburu, Turkana who tend to caucus politically with the Maasais. We expect Gabbra, Burji, Borana and Rendille, who are Nilotes to support Raila who is a fellow Nilote with whom their ancestors migrated from The Southern Sudan.
Kalonzo has huge presence in Upper Eastern where he got a sizeable vote in Upper Eastern, only trailing ODM’s Odinga. That means that their combined Railonzo impact should whitewash Jubilee in the Upper Eastern.
Remember Raila has huge play in Meru country, occasioned by Miraa politics, which is a matter of life and death, whereby sanctions would greatly impact them.
The Meru economy exclusively relies on the Miraa trade, and sanctions would obliterate the Meru economy. They need an ally in Statehouse who can network with Netherlands and the EU to reverse Miraa ban in Europe.
Uhuru would make the Miraa ban worse than it already is right now. Other than Miraa- Coffee, Tea, Banana, and Dairy farming would all be stifled by sanctions.
Expect Raila to eat into Meru vote. Uhuru might take Meru vote, but not at Higher margins like Kibaki did. Their affinity for Kibaki IN Meru was geopolitical, due to the proximity of Meru to Nyeri, and the shared geopraphical feature- Mount Kenya. Uhuru’s Gatundu village is like 5hrs drive if you are doing the speed of the Miraa truck.
There’s not a single historical trade or otherwise bond that holds Meru and Gatundu together. In the early days, donkey caravans couldn’t reach Gatundu.
It’s the reason why even Kiraitu’s Mbas preferred to go it alone when Kalonzo failed to be Jubilee candidate. Yes Merus intermarried with Kikuyus, but those from Nyeri not Gatundu.
There’s not a way on earth to move cattle dowry from Meru to Gatundu. That’s what I mean that no historical relationships or chemistry between Uhuru and the Meru. But Nyeri to Meru, sounds closer, is why Kibaki dominated Meru politics . So both Raila and Uhuru come from far, in Meru terms. And that’s why; they will share the Meru vote, giving Raila a landslide.
The Meru people don’t trust Uhuru as they did Kibaki due to geopolitical reasons. Their little affinity to Uhuru is only guided by a perception that Kibaki is behind Uhuru.
Otherwise, they are geopolitically closer to Kalonzo than they are to Uhuru. The only bond I can think of is the ICC equation where Muthaura is facing a similar accusation with Uhuru.
Other than that zero. He doesn’t connect with the Ameru people. Delay this election by 2 months and he will lose the Meru vote in toto.
CORDED
Raila is ripe 4 the top seat
Raila does connect with omugussi. uhuru will carry the Maa people where he originated from
Would you please stop yapping….I am a Kamba with deep origins..we don't hate Uhuru for dumping Kalonzo…Actually its the opposite..Kalonzo is known to jump into wagons headed nowhere..we r amused at him rather..in his back mind he thinks he'll inherit leadership frm Raila whch is rather unachievable..I am in jubilee to stay n don't think m alone…btw, this Sanctions thing, these white Imperialists can't dictate to us who to vote for..wake up n smell d coffee..for how long will we be ruled by d colonialists..pls tell turner to pay for my grandfathers reparations…that guy has d guts to say those crimes were committed by others..- hate westerners..I am a racist yea but I'll rather die of hunger than have them dictate to my country who n who shld not lead kenya…
your country? gosh!!!
YOU'VE STATED YOUR MIND. GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR DREAMS
Can u suport ua allegations with facts meru s a membr of GEMA the biggest block in kenya ngoja mon uone
Us merians are 100% jubilee.
THESE ARE PROPAGADAS THAT NO DOWRY CAN BE TAKEN TO GATUNDU BY MERU PEOPLE.
Political foolishness. Nowhere is far to pay bowry.
u sound so corded no a single meru could vote raila e.g where iz imanyara in meru politics and that iz because he is in ODM?
Raila definitely will get votes from Meru County. His point-person in Meru Ho. Gitobu imanyara got support in Meru and from 491,000 votes 250,000 will got to Raila. Ask the people of Imenti, Tigania and sana sana Igembe where we got the Miraa booming business. It is CORD, they have decided
Have a good study @ kenya today redempter and don’t be a numbskull
You are misleading people.Uhuru will get 90% of the meru vote.remember merus have a tag for the Luos..and only associate with such only on a must basis…about Kamaba…you will be amazed…dat the word.ISIOLO jubilee region.get you facts right.
Eastern Stretches from Marsabit to kibwezi, Eastern is not Meru ,Refer To UR Class 7 GHC
DID I WRITE SOMEWHERE EASTERN IS MERU?
The much Raila can get from eastern is 30%
get you facts right or wait for 5th to prove urself…uhuru will become president.stop PROPAGANDA nkt?
my 10 year old son would do a better analysis of Eastern than that.
pedro and kenya today are you the mouth piece of Cord. Uhuru will be the next president. As a newspaper you should be neutral. Okay
AS IF DAILY NATION IS
Results show that Eastern is jubilee Ukambani excepted.North Eastern is also included -so much for your analysis !