It turns CORD strongholds have registered more voters than Jubilee zones, both IEBC and Registrar of persons data compliment this fact. To make matters worse for Jubilee there are even more voters yet to be registered in CORD strongholds and thus only extreme massive rigging may save Uhuru in 2017.
CORD leader Raila Odinga who has a strong network of intelligence in government got wind of the information last year and that is why while on a tour of Kibera he quoted the eaxct information which most people including Jubilee mainstream ignored.
Two weeks ago a terse warning by two outgoing electoral commissioners (Letangule and one other) to a top Statehouse official on the difficulty of winning the 2017 presidential contest under the revised electoral management system triggered the fierce battle to change the election laws, the Nation rep newspaper reported on Sunday.
The two IEBC commissioners also told the president that most of the swing tribes have since turned opposition fanatics like Bukusu, Gusii, Masai and Somali. The commissioners were blunt and told Jubilee to forget securing more than 25% votes in the swing counties.
The message by the two commissioners who presided over the 2013 elections, and who have insider information on the voter register and other preparations by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), elicited a strong reaction from the Jubilee leadership and triggered a series of events culminating in legislative changes whose key element was to allow a manual backup in case the electronic identification of voters and transmission system for results failed.
The informal meeting over the lunch hour took place at a five-star Nairobi hotel on December 11.
After hearing the message, the top Jubilee leader is said to have left the lunch meeting in a hurry to relay the message to his bosses.
“He was shocked to the core, attempted to continue enjoying his meal but he couldn’t proceed. He didn’t finish his food,” the source said.
The commissioners are said to have presented various scenarios — if the Jubilee presidential ticket ran against one main opposition candidate — backing them with the latest numbers of registered voters from all regions.
The message has since become the turning point to the extent of forcing Jubilee to make an about-turn on negotiated bipartisan laws passed three months ago. Immediately Jubilee is said to have embarked on a strategy that would see Mr Kenyatta secure a second term in office.
Leader of Majority in the National Assembly Aden Duale would later meet National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi to recall members from recess to pass the amendments in a stormy session on Tuesday and a subsequent one on Thursday that saw opposition MPs walk out in protest.
BVR, which comprises a laptop, a finger print scanner and a camera, is used for registering voters. It captures a voter’s facial image, finger prints and civil data or Personally Identifiable Information — name, gender, identity card/passport number and even telephone number. EVID is an electronic poll book with finger print reader.
The opposition, led by Cord principal Raila Odinga, argues that like it was the case for the twin by-elections in Kalokol ward in Turkana and Mosiro in Kajiado last October where the IEBC relied on satellite to relay the results because of unpredictable Global System for Mobile Communication coverage, nothing stops it from deploying the same system next August.
Cord is opposed to the amendments, saying the electoral laws were a result of a negotiated agreement among other contentious issues and that Jubilee is acting in bad faith. The opposition has called for street protests from January 4.
Sources also say President Kenyatta’s strong statement against “foreigners” interfering with elections and a subsequent coordinated attack by Jubilee politicians against the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, which has been offering technical support to IEBC and previous commissions since 2002, for supposedly working to rig in the opposition,was suppordily due to panic and paranoia.