The sacking of the Garissa Town MP Aden Duale as National Assembly Majority leader offers an opportunity to the Muslim community to re-group and organize a formidable voting block that will be 3rd biggest after the Mt Kenya and Luyha nations. Muslims have more numbers than the Kamba, Kalenjins, Luo and Kisii.
The exit of Duale is set to re-organise the Somali community and most likely seek to unite with other communities mainly those that profess Islam in order to front a formidable force deserving a seat at the high table of FOUR. The Somali reside mainly in Mandera, Wajir and Garissa, they are the single largest community commanding about 45% of the Muslims in Kenya, the other communities that profess Islam include those at the Coast region covering Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Tana River counties, there are also pockets in Taita Taveta county mainly in Voi and Wundanyi towns. Other areas with significant Muslim voters include Isiolo and Marsabit counties. In Nairobi,they dominate in Eastleigh and South C. It is now common to find Muslms in almost every township with significant numbers good enough to facilitate election of an MCA in counties like Kajiado, Samburu, Kisii, Kisumu and Kakamega (Mumias).
Hon Duale has been the highest ranking Somali leader in national government and his exit has left gap that may be filled in natural motion of things without much of organizing (may be by a non Somali) but a Muslim nonetheless. Mombasa governor Ali Hassan Joho is the highest ranking Muslim whose popularity transcends religion and therefore a natural choice for those that profess Islam. The Coast region just like Northern Eastern Kenya has been neglected since independence thus a uniting factor. The extra judicial killings and profiling of the youth in the two regions is also another a shared pain among the Coastal communities and the Cushittes (Somalis, Rendille, Borana, Gabra etc).
The Coast and North Eastern regions have slowly been integrated especially in Tana River areas, there are also a big chunk of Somalis in Mombasa, Kilifi and Kwali who have invested in the hotel industry and also at the Port. It should be remembered that it is Raila who picked Duale from Mombasa where he was hawking clearing and forwarding services and planted him in Garissa, Hon Mohammed Ali who is born a Borana (parents are from Marsabit) is now an MP in Nyali, Mombasa the two cases confirm the integration of Somalis with coastal communities.
Hon Duale is more of a national cartel than a groundsman, he is a paper tiger who knows how to navigate the corridors of power in Nairobi but lacks capacity to mobilise ground troupes unlike Governor Joho who is an excellent mobiliser and is popular among the youth and women (a critical demographic for 2022 statistics).
The Building Bridges Initiative report will be handed over to the two co-principals (Raila and Uhuru) soon and the clamour to amend the Constitution will dominate the country’s political agenda thus an opportunity for Joho to take the lead to overshadow Duale once and for all. Post 2022 Joho is likely to be named the Deputy Prime Minister, being the deputy party leader of ODM with backing of Muslim voting block puts him ahead of his peer Governor Oparanya and elevates to be pari passu with Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi on the Raila NASA side of the handshake equation while on Uhuru side Hon Gideon Moi and Peter Kenneth/Anne Waiguru are positioned for the other deputy PM slot. With Musalia Mudavadi drifting away from the Handshake coalition, it leaves Joho and Gideon Moi as the hot favorite for the two deputy minister positions while Peter Kenneth and Kalonzo Musyoka square out for Deputy President position .