ANALYSIS Y: MIGORI SENATORIAL BY-ELECTION
By Meshack Odhiambo
Finally it is Dalmas Otieno vs Ochillo Ayacko.
It’s obvious that Migori Senator will come from the larger Rongo (Rongo/Awendo constituencies). The race is therefore between Dalmas and Ochillo.
The following factors will work against Ochillo.
1. Direct nomination
2. Gov. Okoth Obado factor
3. Kuria & Luhya community factor
4. NASA fall-out
5. Poor development track record
6. Inconsistency (mara Governor, mara SRC, mara Ambassador, now Senator!).
Factors in favour of Ochillo:
1. Intact support base
2. Sympathy votes
3. Raila Odinga factor
4. ODM Party factor
The following factors will work against Dalmas:
1. Raila Odinga factor
2. ODM party factor
Factors in favour of Dalmas:
1. One of the best development track records in Kenya
2. Massive influence nationally and even regionally.
3. Gov. Obado support
4. Handshake politics
5. Disgruntled former Mps support
OPINION POLL:
1. RONGO
Ochillo – 10% Dalmas – 90%
2. AWENDO
Ochillo – 70% Dalmas – 30%
3. URIRI
Ochillo – 30% Dalmas – 70%
4. SUNA EAST
Ochillo – 90% Dalmas – 10%
5. SUNA WEST
Ochillo – 65% Dalmas – 35%
6. NYATIKE
Ochillo – 55% Dalmas – 45%
7. KURIA WEST
Ochillo 20% Dalmas – 80%
8. KURIA EAST
Ochillo 15% Dalmas – 85%
AGGREGATE:
Dalmas Otieno = 56%
Ochillo Ayacko = 44%
Hon. Dalmas Otieno is likely to become the 2nd Senator of Migori County.
Assumptions:
1. Voter turnout will be equal in each of the 8 constituencies.
2. No massive rigging
Anonymous says
Nonsence! Ochilo Tibim.Follow Raila see power.
mzae says
Ayacko kuome
Anonymous says
Kenya politics!politics of no consequence
peter says
in migori senate we only need aperson which support sugar plantation .more also aperson who can be in positionoof balance devolution,e.g electricity supply.his main work is edit if the county money are correctly used. see place like school kuna there transfomer was brought but it took only few days and then became out service and etc.
chris maurice says
otieno wuod Anyango terwa Canan tumechoka na Odm.
odhiambo Steve says
In Luo nyanza the ODM ticket has a magnitude, and that’s why Hon. Ayacko has higher chances to become the third senator, remember most elderly people all they know is, “Raila to owacho nang’o” that fact alone is enough leave alone coming for physical campaign.
Anonymous says
this is case of Kisumu county Jack ranguma was stronger than prof but odm factor made ranging to loose
Anonymous says
Odhiambo Steve: Migori people suffered the brunt of electoral casualties, mayhem and deaths in the last election! They sacrificed, boycotted voting booths with their blood and sweat. Even went as far as spending the whole night cooking ugali besides the road in order to guard ballot box stuffings from Jubilee. Many young able bodied men died while fighting against government GSU wanton massacre. The same case was done in Siaya and Ahero, but when it came a time for Raila and ODM raising money for the burial of young Gallant ODM Migori soldiers, Raila was no where to be seen. He raised money for only Siaya people. Migorians were on their own. One young man intimated to me that they can do without ODM input. In times of need, only Gov. Obado was there to comfort their families. ODM factor in Migori County might go either way. Remember, their chosen candidate did not win in the last election. Do not underestimate Migorians, they have independent mind of their own( I can live without you mindset). Migori is not Kambani where Moi use to bait them with maize during starvation. It is one of the most productive counties who can feed themselves with or without the government. They had been in the cold for over 4o years, and they managed it without government support. It is not who ODM selected, it is who can work hard and bring development in Migori County. If it is Ayacko, support him, if you think it is Dalmas, vote for him! It is your vote, you do with it whatever you want with it. Migori people will not let anybody herd or steee them like goats to vote a certain way because of somebody’s interest.
Anonymous says
mano mari ochillo nyale
Anonymous says
That is why we need democracy and transparent elections in Migori so that you can express support for your candidate in the ballot booth. As much as you support Ayaco, other people are entitled to their opinions and to support a dissenting candidate of their choice.
Orieko says
ochillo hana msimamo thabiti, kura kwa dalmas- “wacho gi timo” odalo tibim!
opiyo ray vany says
we hve suffer a lot let us vote for leader that we want nt as odm party wants it to be.bt all of them hve the ability to rule the migorian pple kura yko siri yko
Anonymous says
adali tibim achana na ochillo
MIKASA says
NO DAY DALMAS WILL DEFEAT OCHILO IN RONGO.OPINION POLL WAS WRONGLY CALCULATED.