By Rashid Wanjala
This second part of our serialization delves into why the Mudavadi candidature is only meant to scuttle the 6 out of 8 province ODM 2007 support base.
The strategy by the anti- Raila forces (formally or informally allied to TNA) is built on 2007 voting patterns; a divided Non TNA vote (The Orange Territory) would guarantee a TNA candidate victory.
The school of thought here is; if TNA can consolidate the 2007 Kibaki or PNU voting bloc then all they have to do is to divide the 2007 ODM support in 6 provinces. That is how the formation of projects (UDF, URP, POA etc) was mooted.
The plan A was to bring on board Eugene Wamalwa under the auspices of the Tom Namwamba registered Simama Kenya, who could later seize control of New Ford Kenya
The broader strategy was to raise the profile of a Western Kenya politician; Eugene Wamalwa fitted the bill, the aim was re-ignite the traditional Luhya sub tribe rivalries and at the same time kill many birds with one stone.
The entry and elevation of Hon. Wamalwa could make Mudavadi jealous, and exploit his fear of another Luyha presidential candidate. Jealous people tend to respond irrationally, and the strategy did exactly that!
It was no surprise when Eugene Wamalwa was appointed Justice Minister; Mudavadi almost immediately went overdrive and re-affirmed his candidature for the presidency and his threats to quit ODM intensified. Looking at the composition of his UDF team, one could not fail to notice that it was not a sustainable strategy, but rather reactionary reflex behavior prompted by sibling jealousy- borne out of fear of losing an ethnic Kingpin tag.
It is at this point that he chose to submit to the puppeteers that had for so long seductively pursued him with promises of opportunities to read speeches in state functions, pass out parades and international assignments, clear symptoms of a project.
I donâ€™t know which books Musalia reads but I would recommend Robert Greene and also some Niccholo Machiavelli for him.
The current and subsequent ensuing defections are signs of a crumbling campaign, it pays to have a well thought out strategy and that is why I urge Kenyan politicians seeking the top political offices to have at least a Masters degree in addition to keeping company of a reliable selfless strategy think tanks.
Musalia being a zero grazed professional who joined Tysons Limited immediately after graduation and then to cabinet is finding it hard to understand complex murky political waters as compared to his erstwhile competitor Hon. Ruto .
Siasa inafaa mtu akuwe chap chap. Ukiona msee na kisu, maji kwa sufuria jikoni unakaa masaa, haungoji kupikwa supu!
So, whereas Moi endorsed UK in 2002, Kibaki has chosen to do the exact reverse. Instead of completing the Phase II of the 2002 project, he has opted to undermine the 2007 Raila support zone by adding his weight onto the Mudavadi project.
Kibakiâ€™s succession strategy seeks to kill 2 birds with one stone. It helps his heir apparent- Uhuru Kenyatta to win at the same time shed the tribalism tag (by supporting a Luyha candidate) which has dogged his administration â€“ I find it smart!
In other words, Mudavadi is being used as a stooge to redeem the image of another person, what in the spiritual parlance is called a â€œsacrificial lambâ€.
Otherwise looking at the emerging political scenario how can one explain his dwindling backyard support? Why did Amos Wako join ODM and not UDF when Rift Valley and Central Kenya aspirants are coiling themselves to the regional outfits? What of the poor show in the just concluded by elections? Reality of the 2002 humiliation is just about to strike.
Mudavadi is on record pledging to protect president Kibaki upon his retirement, if indeed he were a peopleâ€™s project nobody would expect him to carry the burden, the sins, the failings, and the baggage of Kibaki (if any).
Kibaki is looking for an exit strategy that portrays his legacy in good light, he has sought â€œtalentâ€ outside his ethnic orbit, but he does this while sending mixed messages, which under close scrutiny, leaves an insightful person with a firm conviction where his real and total political support truly lays – TNA!
If Kibakiâ€™s core team (TNA wheeler dealers) meant well, they would have supported a Raila candidature, as he is a sure guarantee of handing over of power to the rest of Kenya.
That is if they truly want to pass the baton to the rest of Kenya- if they want to support a leader who can unite Kenyans.
The moment they build Musalia outside the ODM political orbit itâ€™s malice aforethought, intent on dividing the Raila 2007 voting bloc, to pave way for the TNA candidate to prevail.
Add to that the way they engineered the exit of Hon. Ruto, and you can see that itâ€™s a strategy that was devised ages ago, and has systematically been rolled out, bit by bit with the sole agenda to eat into the massive Raila political support base.
Musalia is not in their end-game plans which explain why only the TNA apologists like Jamleck Kamau of Kigumo and Katoo ole Metito of Kajiado South are getting appointments and immediately chose to work with TNA.
Abdikadir Mohamed, Kioni and Nderitu, who have been associated with UDF, have missed out on ministerial appointments despite their education and impeccable credentials.
Itâ€™s no longer an allegiance to Kibaki anymore but to TNA that secures you an appointment in the PNU side of the coalition.
Gideon Konchela, despite his impeccable security credentials and association with PNU (which was led by George Saitoti- a fellow â€œMaasaiâ€) would have been the most logical replacement at the docket.
So which heir should we believe? The one who is power broking powerful ministerial positions, or the one who is being sent to read speeches?
The one who is being baited with trips to UNGA (United Nations General Assembly) while his UDF is being raided for talents like Kabando wa Kabando? Or the one to whose party the UDF defectors are trooping to? Rumour has it that Kioni is also headed TNA way.
The one whose paths you cross at your own peril in the PNU side of the coalition government or the one whose mouthpiece Bonny Khalwale was humiliated and/or chewed whole when he attempted to bring down Amos Kimunya in parliament?
Orengoâ€™s analogy of heir apparent versus heir presumed is being implemented in letter and spirit.
You donâ€™t need to be Mutahi Ngunyi or Makau Mutua- Every average Kenyan should be able to see that thereâ€™s a script devised by the wheeler dealers of the house on hill that is being played, and take my word, they are very smart on paper.
They made UDF and they will destroy it. In a few weeks, mark my words UDF would be a shell, with only Musaliaâ€™s sub-location. That explains why Kabando Kabando, Jeremiah Kioni, George Nyamweya, who are the nucleus of the party would be out in less two weeks time.
I donâ€™t know of any cell that survives without the nucleus- coz what Musalia will be left with is just the cytoplasm, and thatâ€™s a dead cell, like a car without the engine.
Another pointer to a doomed Musaliaâ€™s candidature is that his erstwhile mouthpieces in Western like Soita Shitanda, Mukhisa Kituyi, Ben Washiali, and George Khaniri have started rethinking their support especially after ODMâ€™s domination in the Bukura ward election.
If you can realize they are not as vocal, as they were at the beginning. When Raila attended a burial in Mudavadiâ€™s backyard of Vihiga a few days ago his reception was ecstatic, and Bonny Khalwale was more reconciliatory and full of praises for Raila.
The reason? They so bad want to be in the next government and opinion polls and word on the ground has it that the candidate of the moment is the PM. None of them wants to warm the opposition benches. They are under pressure from their constituents.
In a Raila presidency, analysts expect the mandate to be overwhelming, and therefore the opposition will be just that- The Opposition. No grand coalition.
Infact, reliable sources say, many-whose names we wonâ€™t disclose because they requested anonymity- wanted to defect together with Amos Wako, but ODM strategists chose to have them swear allegiance one by one, in a spaced period of time, a phenomenon that Jakom calls the â€œslow bleed doctrineâ€, whereby he lets his political enemies like UDF bleed slowly so he gives them enough time to either surrender and submit before they go into oblivion and subsequently into the dustbins of political history.
He applied the same doctrine to the behemoth that was called KANU with excellent results; he will unleash the same doctrine with mathematical proficiency, military precision and laser accuracy to UDF, which is a much vulnerable target, a bubble of air.
In March 2013, esteemed ladies and gentlemen, even though there would be donkeys in the race, the man in Kapkatet, Kapsabet and Kapsoit and Vihiga, and Mbale and Bukura, will be presented with 2 horses- and Mudavadi will not be one of the horses.
They will go with a candidate who wonâ€™t be held ransom by a cabal of individuals who are interested in continuity but one who will operate with a free hand, to independently reform Kenya, a candidate whose chances of occupying the house on the hill are almost guaranteed.
A candidate who has won previously and is for a second time destined to win again. Not one that is sent to read speeches in funerals and pass out parades.
The common man, anywhere in the world wants to be in the next government, and that is why he will never pick a donkey.
That is how only 2 parties- Democrats and Republicans- have evolved to dominate the American political scene, and certainly Kenya isnâ€™t an exception.
The US political scene has had donkeys like the Reformed party, Libertarians etc, who like the flower-girls, WDM, UDF and URP will all go into political oblivion, and Kenya will like in the 2007 political duel, 2 major parties- ODM and probably TNA or the Mbas if they will ever agree- will emerge.
Take it from me Musalia is a paper tiger!
For those of you who missed PART I of this serialization, read The mislearning of Musalia Mudavadi Part I