Governor Evans Kidero and Senator Mike Sonko are running neck and neck in the race to become the next governor of Nairobi in 2017.
But Western political heavyweight Eugene Wamalwa has failed to make an impact after declaring his intention to run for Nairobi governor next year.
The poll of self-declared aspirants was conducted on August 2 and 3 by Radio Africa Group research team though computer-assisted telephone methodology. The 500 respondents aged between 18 and 49 years old were drawn from all 17 constituencies in Nairobi. The poll carries a plus or minus 4.3 percent margin of error.
Sonko appears to be leading the race at the moment with 31 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him while Kidero is close behind with 26 percent.
Behind them comes nominated MP and TNA chairman Johnson Sakaja with 10 percent support while five percent said they would vote for Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru.
Former Starehe MP Margaret Wanjiru, Water CS Eugene Wamalwa and Miguna Miguna, a former advisor to Raila Odinga, have each got one per cent support.
Sonko is strongest in Starehe where he has 64 percent support but also has very high support in Kamukunji, Makadara and Embakasi Central.
Kidero has 62 percent support in Kibra and is also very strong in Dagoretti North.
No other declared aspirant has above other 30 percent support in any Nairobi constituency.
Another three per cent said they would vote for other candidates while one percent said that they would not vote at all.
However 23 percent of respondents said that they were still undecided on who would vote for BUT most of them are likely to support Senator Sonko. There is therefore a strong possibility that the race could take a different turn, especially after Jubilee and Cord officially adopt their candidates for Nairobi Governor.
In particular it might be a challenge for Sonko to turn his undoubted personal popularity into a winning vote if he was not endorsed by Jubilee or Cord.
The poll found that 62 percent of respondents said they had voted for Kidero in 2013 while 21 percent said they voted for Kabete MP Ferdinand Waititu.
Kidero is the presumptive Cord candidate for Nairobi governor but has not yet been formally endorsed and no-one else has yet indicated that they would challenge him for the nomination.
Kidero is yet to launch his re-election campaign but has been working to deliver his administration’s 2013 pledges despite many unresolved challenges such as traffic congestion and waste management.
Sonko, Sakaja, Waweru, Wanjiru and Wamalwa are all in the race for the Jubilee Party ticket and will battle it out in nominations early next year.
In late July four Mt. Kenya MPs caused consternation in Jubilee by endorsing Wamalwa for the Nairobi government nomination during a church service in Kiambu.
Nairobi Jubilee leaders dismissed the four MPs as outsiders but others claimed that Deputy President William Ruto was imposing Wamalwa on them.
The potential Jubilee candidates, other than Wamalwa, have been conducting activities to endear themselves to the Nairobi voters.
Nairobi has been perceived as an opposition zone like many other capital cities across the world, but Jubilee has been gaining ground, according to opinion polls.
In 2013, Kidero won the election with 49.7 percent of the votes with Waititu second with 44.4 percent. In Nairobi Cord leader Raila Odinga got 49.4 percent of the votes while President Uhuru Kenyatta received 47.2 percent.
Jubilee is determined to take control of the capital in 2017.
Sonko has threatened to quit Jubilee if he does not get the nomination to run against Kidero for Nairobi governor in August 2017.
Some Nairobi MPs have been campaigning for Waweru for the last two years while Wanjiru and Sakaja have been promoting themselves.
On July 1 Sakaja went for a function to with Wanjiru and other Jubilee leaders in Kayole to handover a matatu to replace one that was burnt in the anti-IEBC demos.
“You all know that I am running for Nairobi Governor. And you know Bishop (Wanjiru) is also in the race. We, as Jubilee, will take over Nairobi. Don’t worried, in Jubilee we will be together. Our youths need jobs and our women need to do business and jobs,” Sakaja said during the function.
Uhuru is due to meet all possible Jubilee aspirants today to tell them that no-one should expect a direct nomination.
“In the 2013 election, Jubilee had three candidates contesting for the party ticket. In 2017, we are going to field one gubernatorial candidate,” said Duale.
Sonko yesterday declined to comment on the meeting, but said he welcomes Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa into the race for the seat.
“I do not support Eugene but I welcome his arrival. Jubilee should field the strongest candidate and if he is interested, we can meet at the ballot during the nominations,” Sonko said.
“To me he is not a threat, all the others are non-starters. The more the merrier. Let us all meet at the ballot and whoever will emerge the winner will become the flag-bearer. Simple as that.”