By Sospeter Otieno
Not again! The trend is that Hillary may eventually lose the ticket. First, Americans preferred a black man(Obama), with less name recognition than the big deal Clintons, then this time a colorless Bernie Sanders dared run against Hillary when Democratic politicians saw a race against Clinton as a waste of cash.
Bernie honestly didn’t stand a chance, it looked like a walkover for the “insurmountable” and seemingly “invincible” larger than life Clinton machine. Then suddenly from nowhere “grandpa” looking Bernie steadily rises, despite being one, an underdog, and 2)self confessed Socialist(quite unpalatable brand for the American people for almost 120 yrs now..3)initially out-raised.
The big question is why is Hillary always being rejected? Yet she is loved by the public, and those who didn’t vote for her in New Hampshire and Iowa, said they love and admire her, yet, they still didn’t vote for her. And I will be honest with you, and I have known this since Bill was in White House, that Hillary has invested so much in her presidential ambitions, to the extent that she kept Bill in matrimonial union, despite self confessions of adultery. Hillary, would have naturally divorced Bill, but because of her presidential ambitions, she chose to keep him, his transgressions notwithstanding. That’s a huge sacrifice.
And now, Hillary seems to be at the verge of being dethroned from her long coveted and cherished dream, and front-runner status anchored by her Establishment candidate status.
So why is she being rejected?
# The demographics are more hostile to Clinton. A youthful population has come of age, and they don’t remember her days as first lady fighting for free and affordable healthcare, codenamed HillaryCare, and her global leadership on empowerment of women which culminated in the Beijing Conference on women rights. And this is even more complicated by the women under age 30 supporting Bernie(74) by 92% in NH. Hillary has to connect with the 18-45 age bracket, where Bernie does so well.
# She is a woman. Americans have a general antipathy towards women in leadership. They wont say it in public but that’s what it turns out to be. They love Hillary, but they wont admit in the open that they aren’t ready for a woman president.
# Insider brand: Its obvious that she is now branded the Establishment candidate, yet there’s more anti-Washington rhetoric that has drowned all voices of reason. Bernie has tied Hillary to Washington and its cousin Wall-street
# Overconfidence: Hillary has been overconfident and didn’t do much to prepare for the worst case scenario. She didn’t prepare for an insurgent Bernie Sanders. She believed that she had this going for her, and the polls and the media made her believe it.
# Ideological impurities: This is where idealism meets realism. The democratic primary is unique in the sense that Obama, a democrat is in White House. And yet Hillary was an insider who cant have the audacity to trash the Obama record. She has been part of some of the major decisions of the Obama presidency, some of them which have angered the left. Like the Keystone pipeline(which was to transport oil from Canada-environmentally unfriendly) which Hillary, as Sec of State was obligated to test the waters about, before Obama rejected it once it became clear where the Left stood on this. Add to that a ton of treaties that aren’t palatable to the Left that Hillary, as Sec of State was obligated to support. Besides the Clintons are sort of elder statesmen, who are morally obligate to approach matters from the middle rather than from the ultra left. Statecraft is best executed in the Center. And Hillary had to take certain center left positions that have come back to probably cost her the presidency. Bernie, like Obama can afford to be idealist, coz he hasn’t had to be part of statecraft, Hillary’s record is well documented. In the 90s, Hillary was viewed as super-Left, but you see what was Left in the 90s like abortion, sounds moderate in the 21st C. Add to that Bill Clinton was the master of triangulation, and Hillary may be taking his advice and triangulating which doesn’t work well in a 2 horse race.(triangulation is where you attempt to appease both left and and right)
# Benghazi fiasco and using her own email server is a huge game changer in this. Bernie has kept out of this, but the Republicans are advancing this argument for him. And I think he likes it. And he knew that will play itself out, and its has consumed Hillary, and whole it has.
# Bernie is the Obama of 2016. And Obama did admit in an NPR interview that the media did favor him in 2008, and that they were so mean to Hillary. The same is happening now. The media has its weight behind Bernie. You see the media makes money out of communicating upsets and surprises. And they love it when Bernie upsets Hillary, which is what keeps the race longer and competitive.
# Bernie’s bottom up strategy: Bernie is running a bottom up fundraising and grassroots volunteer strategy, while Hillary is running the Washington style of endorsement from big names and contributions from a mix of big donors and grassroots folk. The Bernie Phenomenon is sustainable, with the risk well spread out, more like the Obama 2008 model, where donors give 5 buks, 20 buks etc. Its more like the small man campaign, which is why he calls it a revolution. And it’s a revolution for sure. Bernie is outraising and outspending the Hillary campaign 3:1.
We now head to South Carolina, all eyes will be on Hillary. It will be so sad if she doesn’t make it, I had for a long time been wired to believe Hillary is the next president. @Sospeter Otieno
# THE AUTHOR PROHIBITS REPUBLICATION. DO NOT REPUBLISH.