By: Moses Kandie
The Obama message on Tuesday was great news to Jubilee duo. Tuesday night must have been the most peaceful since the opening of the Justice Waki envelope and subsequent revelation of the then Ocampo Six.
Full of energy, happy and confident the Jubilee duo held a press briefing thanking the USA president. Wednesday morning the duo were off to Turkana, where top on the agenda was parroting to Wananchi Â the good news of the endorsement from Obama and a guarantee to the Turkana people and Kenyans in general that they were now weupe kama pamba!
Meanwhile, a calculating Odinga took time to respond to President Obamaâ€™s message and as was expected he said Obama message. To Odinga, the Obama message was a blessing as it vindicated him; that his candidature is homegrown and not foreign propelled as Jubilee propaganda had made their tribal bases believe.
The Obama message was widely disseminated by the Jubilee team, with others taking the trouble to translate it to vernacular languages just to emphasize that Obama and his Mzungu uncles in Europe are ok with the Uhuru presidency and so there will be no sanctions.
I, for once, thought Jubilee strategists were sleeping on job!
Obamaâ€™s statement was very general BUT very specific for those with a keen interest in detail. USA is not ready for status quo. It is no secret that Jubilee represents status quo, a fact to many even deep in the villages.
Obama wished Kenyans well and advised against electing people who will propagate tribalism and corruption. This reminds me of Mutahi Ngunyiâ€™s presentation, which may have inspired Obamaâ€™s communiquÃ©. Listening to Obama, it was clear that USA does NOT support Raila Odinga, and do not support ICC accused.
Could it be that USA is supporting Peter Kenneth or Prof Ole Kiyiapi?
The drama between Jubilee/Nairobi and Washington & London seem to be re-enactment of the Simon Makonde story. Just hours after the Obama message, the UK envoy to Kenya Mr. Christian Turner was on Citizen TV where he confirmed the obvious; United Kingdom and rest of Europe will not deal with ICC suspects and they do not have contact with the ICC inductees.
On Thursday, Obama â€˜s African affairs envoy Johnnie Carson confirmed â€˜the in between the linesâ€™ message from his boss. He went further to expound in very clear terms for the benefit of the sleeping Jubilee strategists and propagandists that USA was in sync with Europe, choices have consequences!
From the response by the Jubilee presidential candidate, his running mate and their handlers, it is clear that the duo are fully aware of the risks and consequences they are putting the 40+ million Kenyans in case they succeed with their tribal algebra (God forbid). However being politicians of immense wealth and influence they have chosen to use common Mwanainchi as human shields against the ICC trials.
Most Kenyans remember Uhuruâ€™s colourless tenure at the Ministry of Finance. Just a small scandal involving his friends and business associates (see PAC reports) sent the shilling to the dogs in the exchange against the US dollar, causing inflation to hit the skies a supersonic rise in the cost of living. Now, imagine what sanctions can do; killing the flow of foreign exchange, foreign direct investment, foreign aid will effectively relegate Kenya to a pariah state.
Uhuruâ€™s quick acknowledgment and praise of Obamaâ€™s message is a confirmation to the doubting Thomases that sanctions are REAL. Support from China and other poor rogue states like North Korea, Iran, Syria, Sudan (friends of Uhuru/Jubilee) is not adequate to cushion Kenya. Furthermore, they have been trading with Zimbabwe. As I write this, the average Mama Mboga in Kibera is richer than Zimbabwe that has less than KES 19,000 in its state coffers!
In the event of a Jubilee presidency, Uhuru who previously has insisted that Kenya does not need America and her allies will prosper by trading with rogue regimes like Iran, Sudan, North Korea, China and Syria. Uhuru just like other top 2% Kenyan elite have investments in the developed and developing world that will hedge any risks once Kenya is slapped with functions. What will happen to the average Kenyan? Well,Â Uhuru’s message is nothing but pants on fire!
Points to remember from the well executed communication by the international community to the Kenyan electorate, more so, the political class should note the irreducible minimum thus:
- Peaceful elections,
- Respect rule of law, both domestic and international law, and remember,
- Choices have consequences!
The message is clear: Elect the Jubilee duo and you are on your own. Are Kenyans willing to try another Zimbabwean experiment/case study?