Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta of Jubilee Party will beat Raila Amolo Odinga in the coming elections. That is the worst of the news in my opinion today. But as matters stand Uhuru will beat Raila without much sweat or magic. That is not a prayer; it is the position of the matter; not unless a miracle happens this week.
Most of my readers and friends may not believe it; they may not like either. It is a bitter pill but it is the stuff. Uhuruto is a formidable force. It is the team and if Raila misses his nights, there is enough reason for it. A mother of battles in his political life is the coming presidential elections. If Raila says the 2007 elections were anywhere near parabolic battle between Biblical David and Goliath, he is not sincere to the public. He never missed sleep that he must miss today or perish in politics of falling before two young men.
Uhuruto has become confident as the day grows old. All politicians and political parties want to join them. Like a fairest bride in the entire empire, the party has to choose who to give a hand. Parties that approach them with opportunistic terms and demands have to rehearse before they reach out. In fact, parties like Kanu have had to hide in UDF to confirm that they â€œwill support Mudavadi or Uhuru for President; whoever wins nominationâ€. Their confidence is the Jubilee confidence.
Then someone may ask: how will Uhuru beat Raila?! The answer is a simple one word â€“ numbers â€“ but I will try to illustrate it here in three perspectives. As you will realize, these views veritably dismiss notions and public propaganda that the Jubilee Party considers picking Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi for candidate. That is far from truth. Apart from Raila, no other to politician in Kenya enjoys independent influence on the electorate, whether regional or national. Uhuruto therefore lean on support of henchmen who invest heavy resources in their shots. Uhuru, for instance, carries a heavy load of interests that Musalia cannot bear. Those interests are the backbone of the Jubilee Coalition and a co-opted Musalia is green to them; if at all he is. When some 40 Kikuyu MPs asked Musalia to forget contesting with Uhuru; take what he is given or quit; they were amplifying this. They do not want Musalia for Luhyan votes but company. Theirs are almost enough.
When the Jubilee Celebrations rocked Nakuru town two Sundays ago, the deal was sealed. Two huge voting blocs agreed â€˜without fearâ€™ to draw a bold line and ask Kenyans, in disguise; â€œWho can beat us in the elections?â€ It was with distinction that they did it and it clearly read on the faces of Uhuruto. They each courted one similar aspect: Gema and Kalenjin vote blocs add up to half of total projection in the nation. That is a huge start, especially, if Ruto wins domestic duels with the ODM and Kanu followers. With State backing and enough funds, the Jubilee pact is capable of effectively spying on the activities of all their targets and rivals; taking timely measures either persuasively or forcibly. They used this to gain Musaliaâ€™s signature on Tuesday. It works.
Secondly, Uhuruto have unwound an enormous campaign network that is determined to outreach Kenyans. That explains why media and human resources in Kenya today seem to talk more of their activities, actual or perceived, than their rivals. This has given followers of their chief rival, the ODM, hell of work in dismissing them as propagandists. For example, rumours that Uhuru is contemplating standing down for Musalia domestic talk has had the ODM in the grassroots fighting. People seem to listen to, and believe, them more than their rivals. In other words, they are taking over the attention of the nation.
Finally, Raila is held up in a messy wire mesh. With peanut backyard vote bloc and uncertain broadcast of influence, the Prime Minister is in deep disarray even after signing pact with Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula. The main headache for the PM is Kalonzo who, as the current Vice President, cannot agree to play subordinate role in the coalition. He eyes the Running mate slot for which Henry Kosgey and Franklin Bett contest. They have made it the Kalenjinsâ€™ stake in the ODM. This heaps the load of thistles upon Raila as he faces revolt from Kalenjin followers whose exodus denies the PM millions of votes. Ruto (Read Uhuruto) will capitalize on that as he throws the last sling that fells Goliath by singing a song: â€œI told you that the man does not regard you! He uses you with his real heart elsewhere!â€ That is a message the people will approve of. Kalonzo brings into the fold half of the Kalenjin votes.
There has been lackluster response by Kenyans to voter registration. Currently, there are only slightly above eight and half million voters on the register. That is adversely below par as was earlier projected by the IEBC. If only twelve millions register by close of the exercise, it will be satisfactory to conclude that Railaâ€™s voluntary voters on the register are four millions. That is a logical assumption because, a fortnight ago, the ODM talked of recruiting 950000 volunteers to help with campaigns but the exercise is yet to begin as Jubilee party rolls out its competitive schemes. Ordinarily, Uhuruto are working for something. Raila seems to enjoy old tales of 2007 which may not enthuse in the current campaigns.
Now, the question is; does Raila have a winning plan?! When and where will he use it after Uhuruto stamps the votes; â€œJubilee Partyâ€? I see Uhuruto in the State House next year; not because they deserve it but because Raila has slept throughout the night. President Barack Obama fought a worthy fight. It was not easy to prevail against the torrent of Mitt Romneyâ€™s money but he unrolled a winning plan. Though he was the incumbent President, Obama did not take it around the nation or parade himself to young Americans like a hawker saying: “See, I am younger than Mitt!” He unfurled a popular strategy without trying to copy what his opponent was doing in the election market.
Raila can launch a popular counter and save his face from failure by redefining his vote-hunting approach by either improving his negotiations or applying a a controversially aggressive African method capable of hurling, whirling and furling the nation. Moi used gifted young men in 1992.