The Kenyan economic blinkers started going red around the 2nd quarter of 2009 when Muigai II was D/PM and finance chief. In fact it is accurate to say that the 2000s boom pretty much plateaued after the 2007 skrimishes and started to falter after the 2008 recession. 10 years later opinion among economists is still divided as to whether the 24 billion stimulus package that Uhuru introduced had any visible blip on the economy.
Come to think of it, that should have been the red flag we needed about this fellow’s appetite for wreckless financial decision making. Anyone with a peindustries insiders in real estate and banking had started predicting the gluts as far back as 2013. Problem with a nation is that the systems are so huge and complex such that by the time you start noticing these economic warning signs the problem would have persisted for a while.
Since 2013 there hasn’t been any significant economical activity going on in the ‘mainstreet’. Thing is, we’ve able to sustain this charade of a ‘growing economy’ and ‘ease of doing business’ through the Chinese debt binge. Basically the mega-infrastructure fest gave the temporary illusion of progress even as the private sector faltered and the average consumer experienced declining disposable income.
So now that the government had hit both the borrowing ceiling and exhausted taxation capacity they are busy making it harder for importers and SMEs to function. Let’s just say the early 2000s boom for all its shortcomings was good while it lasted. We appreciate little that someone could introduce far reaching reforms into 5-6 growth sectors; higher-ed, banking, mobile telephony, mobile money, real estate and transport, that overall shifted the direction of the economy for millions after the 90s glut.
The Narc wave unintentionally lulled us. It bought us a fighting chance at refoming the statecraft, that in hindsight was largely underrated. Right now the statecraft is wreaking from institutional and leadership weaknesses courtesy of this Jubilee team. Now folks are all crowding out and creating long queues at Nyayo house tryna lowkey get passports, jump ship and head abroad.