By: Rashid Wanjala (This is part II of the my analysis of Ruto’s fury on Infotrak polls; part I highlighted Ruto’s paranoia attack (https://www.kenya-today.com/opinion/kenya-opinion-polls).
…and Ruto has every reason to be worried, and scared about the opinion polls, talk in the few North Rift districts (whose support Ruto is struggling to consolidate behind Uhuru) has been rife that â€œif Ruto misleads them this time, he should forever forget their supportâ€. Â Add to this the depressing news that ICC cases will drag on till 2015 means that Ruto desperately needs rapport and an ally in Statehouse.
And the elders have warned him as much. Rutoâ€™s lies to elders for joining Uhuru was that Uhuru can win. Now his lies have been poked holes into by opinion polls consistently showing Raila is the man to beat. Â He is slowly running out of ideas to convince his base why the Mountain and not the Lake was the geographical feature to look to. Why he mislead them into a losing ticket.
It has only been weeks and the house that Ruto mislead them into has begun to crumble and fall apart like a house of cards, thanks to Cordâ€™s invincible campaign juggernaut. First out of Jubilee was Eugene, then Mudavadi. Then the news that Leaders and various aspirants from Wajir and Marsabit counties led by MPs Joseph Lekuton (Laisamis), Chachu Ganya (North Horr) and Adan Keynan (Wajir West), Assistant Minister Adan Sugow among others had ditched Jubilee for Cord began to wear Ruto out.
Cordâ€™s impressive poll showing results came at a time when Railaâ€™s tour of the Western region attracted huge crowds and unprecedented enthusiasm. Bukusuland seemed Corded, Kakamega, Busia looked Corded. (The undecided-Meru, Kisii, Masai, Luyha) will defintely go CORD because they wonna be with the winning team. They wonna be on the side of the bread thatâ€™s buttered.
This is also happening against the background of infighting within Jubilee. Rutoâ€™s major announcement which was scheduled last week was intended to blackmail Uhuru because he is already, as expected reneging on some contents of the Jubilee coalition agreement. Â UK threw a little bone to calm Ruto into changing the topic of the press conference. Ruto had threatened endorsing Raila without preconditions thereof, liwe liwalo if certain Jubilee agreements are not addressed.
Backstabbing by TNA is also evident in which TNA has fielded candidates of Kikuyu descent in Langâ€™ata and Nakuru contrary to earlier zoning arrangements with URP.
Cord where all agreements are being honored is solidly united behind the Fourth President of Kenya. While Cord hangs together, UhuRuto will be hung separately on Mar 4th.
The undocumented Jubilee agreement was that Uhuru finances URP operations to the tune of billions to carry out a massive campaign blitz in the Rift Valley and other TNA unfriendly areas that canâ€™t stand Uhuruâ€™s face due to historical reasons.
Itâ€™s against these promises that Ruto went ahead and made advance orders of 2 choppers. However the billions that apparently made him bolt out of the Ruto-Raila alliance talks havenâ€™t been forthcoming in the amounts and installments as promised. Betrayals right there!
Other than the billions in down payment that Mama Ngina paid from her own purse when she and Uhuru visited Rutoâ€™s house, the balance has not been forthcoming as requested.
Ruto is under pressure to deliver the financial promises Uhuru made to URP MPs and handpicked Kalenjin elders. They think he has pocketed, but I defend him on this one. The cash cow has refused to be milked!
Behind the scenes, reliable sources say, UK has been heard saying â€œRuto aratinda akiuga mbeca, mbeca, mbeca ni cia nyina.(Ruto keeps saying money, money, is the money his motherâ€™s?)
Uhuru has been palekaing URP hivi hivi tu, with preconditions galore tied up to the payments of the rest of the ransom. For example UK has demanded that the URP disbands its secretariat and instead merge with the TNA secretariat to be headed by the toothless Sakaja Johnson and Onyango Oloo at the former PNU offices to be called the â€œJubilee campaign officeâ€.
This is a precursor to TNAâ€™s demands for Jubilee member parties to dissolve into Jubilee if Uhuru becomes president. This script sounds familiar doesnâ€™t it? Kibaki tried to have LDP, DP; Ford K etc dissolve into Narc after 2002 elections.
This merger of secretariats as precondition for further Ruto campaign financing- Ruto has accepted halfheartedly, but itâ€™s because he has no choice otherwise he will use his own money in surmounting a well oiled CORD and Gideon Moi onslaught in Rift Valley and pastoralist regions that URP is delusionally betting on.
The idea is that the UK installments in campaign funds to URP are slower because TNA wants URP broke during the nominations so that they cannot match TNAâ€™s candidatesâ€™ financial might during the Jubilee nominations next week.
Add to this the Kalenjin ambivalence and indifference that has resulted in lethargy and lack of enthusiasm towards the Uhuru candidature resulting in URP candidates saying that for MP, Senatorial and Gubernatorial seats give URP but Rais patia Arap Mibei hence the chini katikati pigia URP, Juu tumia akili rallying call.
Uhuruâ€™s rallies at Kericho and Baringo had surprisingly low turnout. The Jubilee plane is at the end of the runway, and it hasnâ€™t taken off. It can only crash into the grasslands.