There is a new way to read opinion polls: upside down!
By Dorcas S
If you read opinion polls the traditional way, you’ll be setting yourself up for a big disappointment. Look, for the umpteenth time, polls have shown that they are largely unreliable and should be ignored at all costs. The most recent very inaccurate public opinion poll belongs to Dr. Tom Wolf- a diminutive old geezer who inflates Uhuru Kenyatta’s poll figures to a number twice as much as the hair on his pate.
Quickly, before crunching Dr. Tom Wolf’s numbers, let’s look at recent global trends as regards opinion polls:
Many surveys in 2012 predicted that Mitt Romney could upstage Barrack Obama for the presidency. But come Election Day, Barrack Obama blindsided Romney by five points.
In 2014, many public opinion experts said Scottish voters were in a catch-22 situation on whether to sever perhaps the oldest relationship in European history and opt for full autonomy away from Britain. Polls showed that Scots were going to sever the relationship. Come Election Day, the scots overwhelmingly voted to keep ties with the United Kingdom.
Last year, opinion polls clearly showed Donald Trump wasn’t going anywhere close to Whitehouse. Hillary Clinton was shown to be ahead, significantly. On Election Day, Donald Trump clearly gave a thrashing to the lawyer-cum-diplomat.
What is happening?
There seems to be an increase in the number of frauds who seek to influence the outcome of opinion polls for ulterior motives. True to the words of one wise man, opinion polls no longer reflect the wishes of the populace, but are mostly an attempt to influence those wishes.
In Kenya, opinion polls that show Uhuru ahead are manifestly designed to maintain or restore confidence in the president and his deputy; to show that he stills commandeers a huge chunk of the voting bloc.
According to the recently released opinion polls from IPSOS Synovate’s propaganda factory, William Ruto enjoys high confidence levels among Kenyans: the William Ruto who is the de facto holder of the title ‘PERSONA NON GRATA’ in almost three quarters of the regions in Kenya if him being chased from various places is anything to go by; the William Ruto who was in a hot cauldron recently over allegations that he has sired out of wedlock; the William Ruto who is on the verge of being supplanted as the Kalenjin kingpin! No, I think the opinion polls were carried out in Uganda- definitely not Kenya.
But whatever the cooked numbers tell us is that Jubilee are going home. Look, there is a trend- when opinion polls place you ahead, then you’ll definitely come from behind.