The Opposition is Going to Win:
Take it to the bank.
This sounds incredulous, but NASA is going to clinch the presidency this time, and nothing will stop them. Not even rigging.
This is the formula of a straight out victory for NASA:
The first and most important thing they need to do now is to plan for a parliamentary system complete with prime minister and deputy prime minister slots. This is to stall a fallout and accommodate all the major partners in the coalition.
Let Raila be the president, Kalonzo Musyoka the deputy president, Gideon Moi the prime minister, and Mudavadi the deputy prime minister. Here is why:
Any keen observer already knows that if there is a different flag bearer than Raila Odinga, there will be a major fallout, and the different factions will launch out each on its own. That will hand Jubilee victory on a silver platter.
Kalonzo Musyoka is psychologically prepared to play second fiddle to Raila Odinga, and he made that abundantly clear at Bomas of Kenya this week. And, in any case, he knows he can’t win on his own, and he has no plum place in the Jubilee coalition were he to defect- of course unless Jubilee promises him the position of prime minister.
The same case with Mudavadi. If he decides to act outside NASA and contrary to Raila, the vote-rich Luhya nation will be split down the middle, wrecking the efforts to unite the Luhya people. He can’t manage anything close to a victory without the support of Raila. And he previously sustained ego bruises when he was duped by Kenyatta, so, he can’t work with them. Therefore, he won’t have a choice but accept position of deputy prime minister.
Now, putting the position of prime minister on the lap of Prince Gideon Moi will without a doubt decisively wrest the Kalenjin nation from the spell of William Ruto. That is because all that Kalenjins want now is power- and it doesn’t matter through whom. They are hesitant to believe the half-hearted promises that William Ruto will be president in 2022. More, the Kikuyus have a reputation of reneging on their pacts, and there is no reason to believe this isn’t going to be the case in 2022.
And, Ruto is only a darling to his people because he is the most powerful Kalenjin presently- the moment they see someone who is likely to be more powerful, they will, most certainly, decamp. Therefore, promising Moi the prime minister position is going to turn Kalenjin politics on its head- and William Ruto’s political share in Rift Valley will only be marginal and negligible.
Now, there is speculation that KANU is not firmly in NASA. That is true, but they’ll soon find a home in NASA. Jubilee’s ship is full and the plum positions are already taken. More, they have crafted a succession plan on who is to succeed Uhuru Kenyatta. And, they’ll have to dissolve the party to join Jubilee. What a joke? Dissolve a 50+ old party to join a nascent amorphous organization? Big joke! And Moi won’t acquiesce to that. KANU is in NASA- believe me.
With Rift Valley in the opposition, there is no way Jubilee is going to ace it. Western Province, Coast Province, Nyanza Province, a part of Rift Valley, Eastern Province, and a part of North Eastern Province (provinces as they formerly were), if firmly in the opposition, Jubilee will have no chance.