By: Pedro Tish PhD
[wpsocialite]
In 2013, the voting patterns of 2005 Referendum and 2007 elections are going to be replicated.
And so next week CORD is expected to win big in 7 out of 8 provinces. Rift Valley is a new addition where Raila is poised to win very narrowly 40.5% for CORD to 40% for Jubilee.
However given the slim margin, analysts still view R.Valley a toss-up which can go either way since Cord lead is within the margin of error.
Jubilee is poised to be Number 2 nationally followed distantly by AMANI, with a landslide win in the +95% in Central Province for Jubilee. That’s an A. A clap for Jubilee!!! Good job in Central.
Raila’s projected win of Eastern adds to his numerous provinces, as shown by the following table
[styled_table]
| PROVINCE | CORD% | JUBILEE% | AMANI AND OTHERS% |
| CENTRAL | 3% | 95% | 2% |
| NYANZA | 90% | 9% | 1% |
| RIFT VALLEY | 40.5% | 40% | 9.5% (Moi factor) |
| EASTERN | 62% | 35% | 3% |
| NAIROBI | 56% | 43% | 1% |
| WESTERN | 65% | 5% (and others) | 30% |
| COAST | 72% | 25% | 3% |
| NORTH EASTERN | 63% | 32% | 5% |
| Total Provinces | 7 PROVINCEs | 1 PROVINCE | 0 PROVINCES |
[/styled_table]
I project 6 provinces for CORD, 1 province (Central) for Jubilee and a tie in R.Valley . R. Valley as observed in my last article is a tossup which can go either way.
Raila 2007 outside Kalenjin vote is intact, while he seems to make inroads into non-traditional ORANGE zones. I expect the CORD voting patterns to be slightly better than the ORANGE 2005 Referendum voting patterns outside Kalenjin and Central.
Remember in 2007, ODM was pitted against a sitting President who was a moderate. Raila defeated Kibaki, even though he was tougher to beat. UK is a rightwinger, a KANU neo-Conservative by birth and indoctrination.
Uhuru is thus a polarizing figure that scares away a large swathe of the nation. He is a piece of cake to Raila and Kalonzo who are now more seasoned, and better networked.
That is why there won’t be a second round. Forget about sanctions debate, there’s not a chance there would be sanctions because ICC inductees won’t win. As such it’s a useless debate, because this is Uhuru’s last game.
This is probably Uhuru’s last stab at the presidency, for obvious reasons, that I chose not to delve into. He has put up a good fight, but unfortunately, the math didn’t just work out.
Kenyans seem settled on a different candidate at this critical moment of their nation’s history. I pray that he resists any attempts by hardliners around him to convince him to not concede.
It seems futile for him to prepare and/or rehearse a victory speech, because the odds are stacked against him, but for the sake of peace, the nation and his image at The Hague, he should have a concession speech ready, to be delivered digitally via skype, and/or Google hangouts if possible. This is deep and Teleprompter concession speeches are acceptable too.
On Election Day watch the 5 Kalenjin URP counties. Raila doesn’t have to win them. If he gets at least 25-30%, then CORD will take Rift Valley.
If Jubilee is restricted to only 5 Kalenjin counties, and 2 TNA counties (Laikipia and Nakuru), with Raila winning the rest of the Rift Valley of Maasai, Narok, Pokot, Trans Nzoia, then Jubilee would only win one Province- Central.
There would be something absolutely wrong with our democracy if one province can make a leader president. The world will laugh at us.
The Kalenjin nation is where Amani plus Moi family will spoil as many votes for Jubilee as possible.
Anything Amani gets in Kalenjin nation increases CORD’s chances for taking Rift Valley. Amani does more damage to Jubilee than it does for CORD.
Due to land injustices, CORD will go landslide in Coast. Higher margins than Raila 2007 are expected. North Eastern would be higher margins; Eastern would be a landslide for CORD. Expect bigger wins for Raila than in 2007 outside Kalenjin land and GEMA strongholds.
Victor X-files says
Indeed the World will laugh at us if we're lead by one province-elected by only one province.
Daniel Chibata says
Uhuru should prepare a concession speech.
Mutiso Daniel says
n may ths come to pass.
Philip Kipkemoi Kiprono says
I DISAGREE ON THE EASTERN AND RIFT VALLEY VOTES, EASTERN COMPRISES OF MERUS AND KAMBAS, MERUS ARE MORE THAN KAMBAS, AND THEY WILL VOTE JUBILEE PRESIDENT AND CAN MIX ON OTHER AREAS [GOVERNOR, SENATE etc,] RIFT VALLEY, BARINGO ARE JUBILEE EXCEPT THAT AMANI WILL GET MPS AND GOVERNOR [GIDEON, SAMBILI, etc] SO YOURS IS JUST A BIG LIE, LET US ALSO NOT WORK WITH % LETS WORK ON ACTUAL REGISTERED VOTERS,
Eric Mang'eni says
Bwana Kip give real facts please. Merus more than Kambas??? My goodness go download the data from http://www.iebc.co.ke and be informed. About RV in as much as the % are not favouring you but trust me you will be in for a rude shock. ''Willing seller willing buyer''
Anonymous says
wrong, kambas are many, just check in facct im sending u link plus merus we got 1/4 of them baba.
Philip Kipkemoi Kiprono says
we nolonger work with provinces, count the counties, and see. nyanza 5, western 4 , rift 8, central 6, coast 5 etc,,,…just but roughly. can raila get 24 out of 47 counties,? can he get 50 +1% votes?
Lumumba Otieno says
Philip, relax and wait for another turn, may be your man would be lucky, who knows.
Dickson Odhiambo says
Wewe Nyanza has six counties. Check your facts right………………
Eric Mang'eni says
Kip you sound a bitter and desperate man why? Do you have some stake?
bernard says
yes
ronald says
now dats de statistics we want,lets see which group is tribalistic,we are kiderod in nairobi n corded nationwide,den whus de prezzo.lets see this,raila in short form its rais n how about em???????
Peter Etianga says
habari ndiyo hiyo
Makapia Abdallah says
HIO
Kiggs Patoh says
true man..
Sagwe Masanya says
ya mungu ni mengi.
Enrique Kam Enrique says
"Raila’s projected win of Eastern adds to his numerous provinces"..It seems some people have resulted 2 console themselves with some imaginary numbers….Just b patient coz we r just left with less than 5days 2 the election…
Francis Wanyiri says
Post sth relevant … Counties ndio kusema not provinces, na uache uongo mtupu ….
N thats a real statistic says
http://www.facebook.com/cornelabayo
Anonymous says
dreams will never end
Victor Waweru Maina says
…Almost agreeable. But the Eastern vote for CORD is a bit exaggerated. I would give it maybe 55%. All in all, its true, it would be strange if against all these numbers UK still leads the country. A vote for CORD is more of a vote a united Kenya.
Alex Chemwor Van Ngetich says
latest opinion mambo ukweli watch it.
Alex Chemwor Van Ngetich says
this like bush fire on a dry savannah grassland
Eric Mang'eni says
Hallleluya
Peter says
Am giving jubilee a win in Central, R.V, EASTERN and Nairobi. Am also giving Cord a win in Nyanza and Western. North Eastern and Coast will be a swing vote. My prediction is Jubilee wins by 52%, Cord will follow by 40%, and others will share 8%.
Bullet Inde Chamber says
True, some facts cant b brushed aside.2007 kibaki won wid only 1 province kwani central ina 10million voters.this is y we need a change of guard.
Baariu M'imunya says
Bull shit
Nyabuto says
What change are you talking about? All these people are in government.
nyachiro sam says
WhetherR.v takes over senators in TNA tickets…..the question is are they going to make 25% of voters in those counties.Remember Ruto assurred Uhuru the much he can to support uhuru in rift valleh was 40-45 but not more than that.Preach peace n say facts only not opinions
Stanislaus Mary says
MEME RAILA OMOLLO ODINGA, RAIS WA JAMHURI WA KENYA…….
Anonymous says
Raila for president
Anonymous says
merus are 1.0 somethng and kambas 1.1 huko. I am talking millions boss. Kwa hivyo usiwe na waw waw, okay?
Anonymous says
hehe…..whos laughing now…..where r the 7 provinces???????
Mohch Njoki says
daktari:mhmhmh with all due respect..round hii daktari umenoa big time…ati ulisema.."ODM was pitted against a sitting President who was a moderate. Raila defeated Kibaki, even though he was tougher to beat. UK is a rightwinger,"..hahahahahahah..sikia ingine…."It seems futile for him (uhuru)to prepare and/or rehearse a victory speech, because the odds are stacked against him, but for the sake of peace, the nation and his image at The Hague, he should have a concession speech ready, to be delivered digitally via skype, and/or Google hangouts if possible. This is deep and Teleprompter concession speeches are acceptable too."….hehehehehe hiiihhihihhi..uuuuuhu..ona hii nayo…"Uhuru is thus a polarizing figure that scares away a large swathe of the nation. He is a piece of cake to Raila and Kalonzo who are now more seasoned, and better networked."..hehehe I like the last bit".. He is a piece of cake to Raila and Kalonzo who are now more seasoned, and better networked"…wah in deed they were a coke to him…hehehe..daktari ti ulisema aje..hhhh.."That is why there won’t be a second round. Forget about sanctions debate, there’s not a chance there would be sanctions because ICC inductees won’t win. As such it’s a useless debate, because this is Uhuru’s last game…"..woooh..iee..my ribs.hhh..now daktari seriously were you being objective or were you be Holden…. all said and done..my respect still stands.
Mohch Njoki says
HEHEHE…..OOPS IT WAS A BAD DREAM
Mohch Njoki says
ONE AND A HALF TO BE PRECISE..
Kaihùri says
You were very right,thanks