By MX Muriuki via FB
In 2013, Jubilee won in a total of 20 counties. The then Cord coalition won in 27 counties. Cord friendly counties had a total of 8,372,840 registered voters, while Jubilee friendly counties had 5,977,056 registered voters. CORD had an advantage of 2,395,784. But the Cord base did not turn out to vote.
In 2017, the 27 counties now have 11,552,036 registered voters while the 20 counties have 8,087,672. You can say NASA has an advantage of 3,464,364 votes. Either way, you can say that NASA friendly counties registered more voters.
PS: If you factor only the counties where the margin of victory for either candidate was >10, and supposing we nickname the counties with a >10 margin as strongholds, then NASA stronghold counties in 2017 have a combined 8.5 million votes and Jubilee strongholds at 7.6 million votes. This leaves an epic duel in Nairobi, Narok, Kajiado, Marsabit and Garissa where a total of 3.2 million votes will be up for grabs.
Talking about IEBC will not count. Splashing images of a well attended albeit astroturfed crowd will not count.
Who will turn out his base to vote? Whose GOTV operation and machinery will carry the day?
In the end, it is not breaking news that in the end, all politics is local and a big majority will vote based on ethnic consideration.
This year, social media may play an important role in turning out the votes. Through Facebook Live, for example, a voter can persuade others who hare yet to vote, to do so.
Sharing live events in a polling station, say in Viihiga can inspire someone, say in Thika to stop milking the cow and go vote. The best strategy on election day that say NASA, for example can adopt is to have all the principals every 2 hours send a message to voters via a Facebook LIVE campaign. When this Live message is shared across networks, it may have a big impact in turning out the votes, not just for NASA, but also for Jubilee.