By Wekullo K
…Of 2022 politics:
The presidency is for William Ruto for the taking but he has two choices to make. Both choices are centered on the public knowledge that not much support will come for him from Central and that Raila is definitely not running in 2022 but RAO will be the king maker.
Ruto sticks with JAP and falls for that fallacy that Central will support him in 2022. He goes for president, Raila decides not to support Kalonzo or Weta but picks another Kalenjin, lets call him Kiprono, to combat Ruto in Rift valley. Isn’t this a farmiliar script with Baba afterall?
Flash back 2001, was it not Baba who shouted “Kibaki Tosha”‘ in 2001 to hand Uhuru a humiliating defeat by bringing in a Kikuyu to fight a fellow Kikuyu? Who says this script cannot replay again? What this will translate to is this, Kiprono, by the mere fact that he has been endorsed by Baba will have automatic unwavering support from Western, Coast and Nyanza maybe 20% from his tribesmen, the Kalenjin as most will still be with Ruto. Both Ruto and Kiprono will get nothing from Central but Ruto might benefit from 60% Akambas who will have run away because Baba did not support Kalonzo for 2022.
In this scenario, Kiprono will be declared president early in the morning. Now replace Kiprono with Peter Kenneth who I believe is the next big thing in Central come 2022. Baba might decide to spoil for Ruto in 2022 and instead back Peter Kenneth. This time Baba might bring in Peter Kenneth to deny Ruto the Central votes and it will be all about punishing Ruto. If this happens then the same follows that Peter Kenneth will have the whole of Western, Nyanza, central and Coast…by 8am on election day, game over, Ruto goes home.
Ruto swallows his huge ego and pride and supports Baba for 2017 in return that Baba endorses him in 2022. Peter Kenneth here will only have the Central and Eastern votes while Ruto runs away with the rest of Kenya.
In both scenario 1 and 2 Ruto is looking at the 2022 presidency but he has better chances of clinching the presidency in scenario 2.
Remember, if TNA was truly sincere about the Uhuruto sharing plan, this is what they would have agreed on, that the first term 2013-2017), Ruto supports Uhuru for president then they swith in the second (2017-2022) term so that Uhuru supports Ruto for president.
In the third term (2022-2027) Ruto should then support Uhuru then Uhuru arudishe mkono wa mwisho in the fourth term (2027-2032). The fact that TNA decided to take the first 10years is very suspect and insincere, a fact of which Ruto and his people obviously seem to be naive about.
Na mwenye masikio asikie.