By: Carol Chichi and Tony Moturi
The controversial political analyst Mutahi Ngunyiâ€™s hypothesis that Jubilee enjoys a massive tribal is good news to Raila, this may be contrary to his intentions but a reality not of numbers but circumstances.
It is no secret that the size of the Raila Odingaâ€™s campaign team is jam-packed with professionals some with different interests and agenda and of course in the midst of such a diverse team there could be joy riders!
Ngunyiâ€™s presentation comes at the best moment for the CORD team; in fact Odinga should thank Ngunyi, how about lunch at Kosewe? Mutahi just tagged Railaâ€™s team to wake up to reality and work extra hard to ensure their candidateâ€™s last stub at the presidency succeeds and yes Mutahi just stepped on the tail of ferocious dog!
If there is anything Kenyans are sure of, is that you can never take the war to Raila Odingaâ€™s doorstep and expect to win. Now, if Mutahiâ€™s revelations were meant to serve Uhuru Kenyatta then for sure team Jubilee is pampered and most likely to dive into deep slumber soothed by false confidence that they only need 6% from the rest of Kenya to clinch the Presidency.
Mutahiâ€™s revelations will galvanize the rest of Kenya around Raila, he actually made it easy for CORD, and I can confirm to you that from as soon as tomorrow CORD will take Mutahiâ€™s message to the minority tribes to consolidate their support and this will certainly succeed.
Mutahi just insulted minority tribes by making it clear “they dont matter or they are insignificant”, the outcome is obvious- they feel vulnerable, they willÂ align themselves toÂ Raila’s CORD who seem to appreciate and accommodate them.
What Mutahi did is a display of arrogance by the Mt Kenya elites, the same that jilted Kiraitu Murungi and his Mbus not to join TNA, same arrogance is blamed for TNA’s lose of grip in North Eastern Kenya. That is what is killing jubilee’s dream.
Uhuru may have the tribal backing but the rest of Kenya and indeed CORD are framing him as the incumbent, he will have to carry all the heavy loads of the Kibaki Mal-administration, his incompetence at the Treasury that saw inflation hit highest levels and the worst Kenya shilling to US Dollar exchange rate ever does not make matters easy either.
Kenyans are aware of Uhuruâ€™s immense power in the Kibaki administration, many even think Kibaki is just a proxy; the ultimate power rests with Uhuru. Making Uhuru carry the economic mess of the Kibaki administration is perhaps the easiest way for ODM to galvanize the middle class and the rest of Kenya.
Mutahi presentation is the reason CORD is burning the mid night oil, identifying weaknesses and calling the CORD village cells to send the clear message to its support base that voter turnout will be essential on election day.
The Mutahi hypothesis is keeping ODM/CORD awake and is a loud reminder that it is only three weeks left and it must not be business as usual. I can imagine a series of crisis meetings at CORD secretariat, not because of the revelations by Mutahi but on how to deal with such lame desktop propaganda, and to some extent capitalize on it.
Well, the cat is out of the bag and it is upon Railaâ€™s support base to ensure >96% voter turnout. The Mutahi hypothesis is what is now being discussed in the villages and CORD campaign cells are effectively using the numbers to invigorate its support in the grassroots.
I put it to you, Mutahi Ngunyi has helped CORD deal with the nomination fallout in Nyanza and other ODM strongholds, with that message, I foresee voters in ODM stronghold casting their votes as earlier as 8:00 am and going round homes to ensure that everybody votes.
The figures by Mutahi are not new, in 2007 when PNU candidate Mwai Kibaki realized the rest of country was against his administration, his lieutenants lead by Hon. Kiraitu Murungi coiled back to their Mt. Kenya base and appealed to the locals to carry even the sick to polling stations to ensure a near 100% turnout. That is how Kibaki narrowed an otherwise wide gap.
2012/2013 is jinxed year for Mutahi Ngunyi. Most of his projects, though high paying, are not producing the desired results. He shouted himself horse that Musalia Mudavadi would be president. Well, it seems â€œMadimoniâ€ conspired to defeat the project. Now, he has jumped onto the Uhuru Team taking with him the jinx.
Mutahi may be trying so hard to impress Uhuru BUT clearly his hypothesis is wrong; the total Mt. Kenya vote is 3,056,806 while 1,423,569 makes up the Kalenjin dominated counties bringing a total of 4,480,375 votes. Will all these voters troop to Jubilee? Definitely, NO.
Mutahi assumes that Martha Karua, Peter Kenneth, Paul Muite and any other Kikuyu presidential candidate will vote for Uhuru- this is ridiculous, Peter Kenneth may get at least 120,000 Kikuyu votes, Martha Karua may get another 120k, Paul Muite about 70 k, arenâ€™t this numbers? Where are other regions such as Coast, Maasai, Gusii , Meru and North Eastern that according to pollsters support CORD?
Already the Kalenjin vote is slipping away from William Rutoâ€™s greasy hands. Then there are Kenyans who will be voting based on issues and not Ngunyiâ€™s tribe. Mudavadi is struggling at less than 30% in Western.
Let us just say, the arithmetic doesnâ€™t add up for Mutahi Ngunyi and his Jubilee masters.
One thing is crystal clear: CORD shall forever be grateful to Mutahi Ngunyiâ€™s loose mouth!