How Musalia’s Entry Changes the Game

By: William Makora

Riding on his Amani Coalition horse, Musalia Mudavadi may not be among the first two fastest horses in the Kenyan presidential election this year but one that alters results from one race to two; and decides the winner. That is on consideration of the possible political projections and prevailing tribal tides sweeping through the local landscape.

Entering the presidential race after a short stint at Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Coalition, the United Democratic Front candidate assembles support of Gideon Moi’s Kanu and Eugene Wamalwa’s New Ford Kenya to blow a warning trumpet to Raila Odinga’s Coalition for Reforms and Democracy and William Ruto’s United Republican Party (partner in Jubilee), two birds who share regional crops with him. Musalia will veritably upset rivals in parts of Western and Rift Valley. In his acceptance speech he had shown them the “red card”.

Pledging to promote peace, stability and transformation of the nation, Musalia cleverly seemed draw a line between Amani and Cord’s reforms agenda. Wamalwa was quick to pick it up for a banner: “It is not going to be about reforms, it is going to be about transformation”, he quipped. That is a sister message to Cord’s “reforms and democracy” that Raila’s team rides on; and the subject is broader.

In case of a runoff between Musalia and any of the two horses, Musalia will easily win as one will back him up in order to upstage the other. However if they edge him out of the bracket, they must embrace him, for Western Kenya will hold the swing votes. That will be a bit unfortunate for Uhuru and his Jubilee team. They ought not to have spoiled such precious blood by spook of venomous words like Shetani. Raila will carry the day. That also depends on how him and Mudavadi relate onwards.

Musalia’s team’s advantage in the race is created by earlier coalitions dubbed the two race horses. Even though Raila commands a more national euphoria than the rest, his last minute rush to cord his erstwhile political foe, Kalonzo Musyoka, was largely seen as a desperate attempt to hook the Kamba votes after Uhuru hooked Ruto’s Kalenjin constituency earlier on. In the hooking encounters, Uhuru tried Musalia in a dramatic agreement that hardly lasted one week. Uhuru reneged on it but not after Musalia’s entire Luhyans people endeared him for it. When Uhuru carelessly referred to him as Shetani (Kiswahili word for devil), sympathy of the people simply transformed into a third horse against/for which the ultimate winner must sweat in the competition.

Moi’s Kanu may be invalid in the memories of majority of Kenyans today. It is largely believed to, slightly, breathe through the Rift Valley’s Kalenjin part of the country but Ruto’s slack choice of Uhuru’s horse may inject life into its muscles, joints and guts, especially, after the people warned him in vain. If Mudavdi picks Moi as a Running Mate, Uhurruto’s Jubilee must contend with Amani and Cord for the votes in the region. That plus Luhyans votes, only sharable with the Cord, make Musalia enjoy vigor in his muscles during the race. It might easily throw away the first heat.

In case of a runoff between Musalia and any of the two horses, Musalia will easily win as one will back him up in order to upstage the other. However if they edge him out of the bracket, they must embrace him, for Western Kenya will hold the swing votes. That will be a bit unfortunate for Uhuru and his Jubilee team. They ought not to have spoiled such precious blood by spook of venomous words like Shetani. Raila will carry the day. That also depends on how him and Mudavadi relate onwards.

Cumbered with cares of impending criminal cases in the International Criminal Court at The Hague, Netherlands in April, Uhuruto must be cursing hells for mishandling Musalia. That is because when “a new presidential election is held within sixty days after the date set for the previous presidential election”, [Article 138 clause (8) and (9) of Chapter 9], the duo will be embroiled in court cases. At that time, reality of their unpredictable predicaments will dawn on Kenyans and they may not consider them worthy for leadership of the nation. They may fear this fear but they may not know how to go about it.