By Arap Doyo
Mount Kenya is an interesting place. The political dynamics of the region are very unpredictable. Unlike the rest of the regions, Central Kenya Kingpins have expiry dates.
For the Kikuyus, it has never been about the sycophancy or permanent loyalty but a common mission over a specific period of time. Who can protect their interests best? Who can offer protectionism against perceived political enemies? Individuals are dispensable. interests are permanent.
It is not a suprise that in Mount Kenya, to win a second term is always a tough battle. Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nakuru, Kiambu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi all had their governor’ exit the scene, the biggest send home compared to other regions. Not even the Kingpin can dictate the local candidate’s to get elected. Such is the volatile nature of the Mountain politics.
In 2012, proceeding to 2013 elections, Kibaki was already a spent cartridge. He could barely influence the outcome of an election even in his backyard. Remember him working over-time, in his Othaya backyard to have Mary Wambui lose only to be smacked in the face when Wambui trounced his preferred candidate?
As for the presidential race, Kibaki and his Statehouse henchmen like Prof. Nick Wanjohi outrighty wanted Mudavadi to take over from the Economist. They even formed UDF Party to drive Madvd to State House. Uhuru however went ahead to trounce the scheme.
Fast forward to 2019. Will Uhuru be able to determine presidential succession politics trajectory, a thing his predecessor miserably failed at?
Methinks it shall be a tough one. A hindsight; Uhuru’s main unique selling proposition to win the election was majorly the ICC issue which he used to massively to evoke emotions and unite his Kinsmen to back him. In 2017 just as 2013 too, the narrative was to block Raila – Central Kenya’s common enemy.
But now with the handshake, Raila is no longer a common “enemy” yet to keep him at bay was the single most top agenda that got Uhuru elected. Legit to say Uhuru’s usefulness, in the eyes of his kinsmen, is greatly diminishing and approaching expiry date?
I am not suprised Kikuyu MPs and governors alike; Anne Waiguru, Moses Kuria, Ndindi Nyoro, Susan Kihika, Irungu Kang’ata, that Laikipia women Mp among many others have started showing Uhuru the middle finger, albeit subtly. The continued questioning of Uhuru development record in Central Kenya is just but the beginning.
As 2022 approaches, it shall be interesting. Granted, for an average Kikuyu, Raila cannot be trusted but only to be feared. No matter what he does or give, he shall hardly appease the House of Mumbi. History is replete with countless cases. Case in point, Raila picked Kibaki on a wheel chair and took him to Statehouse. We all know the rest of the story.
As for Ruto, however much Uhuru’s inner Kikuyu sanctum might fight him, the political gods might just smile his way, based on who shall be competing with him at the ballot
Let not Murathe’s fool you in prematurely concluding Ruto’s dye in Central Kenya is cast. Far from it.