I have watched Mudavadi’s political moves since I was in my single digits, and a consistent and predictable streak is evident.
At the core of his survival “manifesto” has been some determination to have a “umbilical Cord” that connects him to the government. Of course the beginnings of his political career were within the inner sanctums of the KANU establishment, where his profile rose, and he held various ministries, among them Agriculture and Finance.
And his best attempt at being outside government was when he associated himself with the Raila led Rainbow rebellion in KANU. However, as expected Mudavadi didn’t have the stamina to stay in the race to the finish line, and soon rejoined KANU, in a deal that saw him appointed as VP, albeit for 2 months
He would soon fall from grace when he lost the Sabatia parliamentary seat succumbing to a multi-pronged battle waged from across the political divide when his detractors ganged up to ensure “anybody but Mudavadi prevailed”. So many political suitors who wanted to “own”, not work with Mudavadi had been disappointed. Ruto, Raila, Moi, Jirongo all had different reasons to “take down” Mudavadi. That is how Moses Akaranga was able to wage a well oiled machinery that floored Mudavadi.
With his parliamentary seat gone, and Moi political machine vanquished by NARC, Mudavadi needed a straw to clutch on. And Mudavadi saw no other complementary person like Raila Odinga who as a “Principal” within the Narc government, was a reliable umbilical cord that connected him to the government.
And Mudavadi’s decision was right. Raila went round with him, and pleaded with Kenyans to forgive him for abandoning them at their hour of need in 2002. Fast forward to 2007, and the man written off as finished had reincarnated ripe and ready to be a worthy running mate of Raila Odinga.
Well, he was rewarded heavily when Raila got the chance to appoint half the bloated Cabinet of 42, with Mudavadi getting a lifeline as a Deputy Prime Minister. Kibaki would in the run up to 2013, dangle a bait, whereby Mudavadi read speeches on behalf of Kibaki in a make believe fairy tale intended to make Mudavadi appear as the Kibaki chosen heir. It would have looked tribal for Kibaki to openly appear to be supporting a fellow tribesman- Uhuru.
Hoodwinked, Mudavadi swallowed the bait and quit ODM to join a UDF party founded by Kibaki’s statehouse insiders. Analysts believe this was part of a larger script meant to divide the Western Kenya vote and to instill a notion of a Raila vulnerability in the face of a divided Western.
And as we all know now, it is very controversial as to whether Uhuru would ever have “won” 50%+1 without the Kibaki State House machinations that included the Mudavadi project that skimmed the Raila-Uhuru margin. Mudavadi’s first agenda post 2013, was reaching out to the winner in which he “unconditionally surrendered” Amani to the mercy of Jubilee.
And no-one should doubt that Western has enough votes- if well registered and religiously turned out- to make Mudavadi a formidable force. The challenge is whether Mudavadi has the wherewithal to inspire them to rally behind his numerous calls for Luhya Unity.
Like a “7 headed snake”, we already have other power centers emerging left right and center in Western.
Eugene Wamalwa’s appointment into the cabinet gives him a spine to re-invent himself ahead of 2022. Eugene has always been Uhuru’s preferred right hand man having played “running-mate” during the launch of Uhuru’s 2013 vehicle TNA. And there is another checkmate, Dr Mukhisa Kituyi whom Uhuru is said to be keen o drafting into the cabinet to help shape his legacy.
Mudavadi is busy meeting delegations including William Ruto’s allies, this is a worry to his close supporters; is he slowly alienating himself from the system? He may want to be the face of opposition but who told him Kenyans care about clean politicians, a stupid fare tale that we rubbed our dirty ass and flushed it off in 2013 when we elected ICC indictees!
Mudavadi’s advisors are greenhorns, they are out interning in high stakes politics which they can’t fathom the end result.