Looking at the voter registration figures, a new tyranny of numbers factor has emerged. And the tyranny favours President Uhuru Kenyatta’s NASA rival Raila Odinga.
The Jubilee strongholds such as Elgeyo Marakwet, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Nakuru, Kericho, Bomet, Murang’a, Kiambu, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Embu, Meru, West Pokot and Laikipia have about 7.4 million registered voters. In the NASA zones including Kakamega, Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga, Kisumu, Siaya, Migori, Homa Bay, Kisii, Nyamira, Turkana, Lamu, Mombasa, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi, Makueni, Machakos and Kitui we are talking of 8.2 million votes. The remaining battleground counties, including Nairobi, have about 4 million votes.
It has become very dangerous for Uhuru and he has to really go flat out to win votes, including in places he ignored the last time.
Last time we were told the Jubilee regions had more registered voters than the Cord zones. This time we have the reverse. If NASA voters turn out in big numbers or huge percentages to vote, then he will go home. Forget about what the pollsters have been giving us. Their scientific figures have been in question and the truth of the matter is the tyranny of numbers favours NASA.
The President, who obviously works with intelligence, knows that things are bad and his frustration has sometimes been expressed from the nature of his campaigns and communication. He does not necessarily go out to endear himself to the electorate. You see him shouting and screaming, almost going out of control and starting to confront individual members of the campaign crowd. This is not the done thing unless you are frustrated. People don’t like a leader who looks at them as a massive clustered population and speaks to them threatening things like ‘I will deal with you when I get there’ and ‘I don’t need your votes’. This costs votes. His handlers ought to have told him that he needs to be cool, level headed and amiable. Amiability has been missing in Uhuru, instead it has been seen more in Raila. When he talks about what he thinks have been the failings of Uhuru and Jubilee, he does not bring out anger. Uhuru is aware that he has a difficult assignment and has to put his best foot forward. Losing some of his 2013 political friends like Charity Ngilu and Professor Sam Ongeri is also taking its toll.
Muluka is a political analyst