These are the obstacles:
1. President Uhuru, and Kenya, have recently renewed its ‘diplomatic relations’ with the West. The implication of this is that they cannot again accuse the West, especially America, for pushing the case.
2. The rejection of Nigeria’s former President Goodluck Jonathan, and the democratic election of Muhammadu Buhari, has tilted the balance of power at AU. Abuja no longer sees eye to eye with Nairobi on a host of issues, ICC included.
3. Uganda’s decision to send Dominic Ongwen to the ICC and subsequent invitation of ICC Prosecutor to Kampala completely weakened Museveni’s mettle. He may be invited here to speak trash against ICC but that is just all he can do.
4. The rule change that allowed for evidence from ‘hostile or non-cooperative witnesses (including those who have disappeared)’ to be submitted to the court was pushed by Kenya in exchange of allowing President Uhuru not to attend the Hague sessions.
5. DP Ruto’s evidence, for all talk about being fixed by Raila, is believed to have been given by the NSIS (now NIS) then acting in the prevailing moment at that time. At that time, DP Ruto was a senior opposition MP. Never did they think the current alliance would be.
6. DP Ruto’s case took off. A number of witnesses have testified, mostly against him. The ethnicity of his witnesses is a matter of cojecture.
7. Mt. Kenya dishonesty. Even a blind Kalenjin knows that they are shedding crocodile tears. President Uhuru may genuinely want to see his friend off the hook but this feeling isn’t shared broadly. In other words, there is no ‘general consensus’ among government and business elites from Mt. Kenya that DP Ruto should be set free.
8. Transition and succession. For all the talk about DP Ruto 2022; certain actions and utterances by Mt. Kenya show clearly the preference is elsewhere.
9. National consensus. Half of the country (CORD) had been told off about these cases. They don’t bother. Half of the remaining half had their guy escape. They too stopped getting bothered. The other half is caged between blind loyalty to Jubilee or outright agitation. DP Ruto doesn’t want agitation. So it is ‘blind loyalty’.
10. There may be no case. But then again, there may actually be a case. Only that we are stuck in that point in time where we don’t know what to do.