There is a clear path to a Raila presidency even if Jubilee tries to rig, an NIS exit poll report confirms. In this election, President Uhuru is playing defense and Raila is on the offensive. Raila’s path to victory will be is backed by the following:
1. A United Luyha/Mulembe vote
In 2013, Musalia Mudavadi garnered 31% of the vote in Bungoma, 49% in Vihiga and 12% in Trans Nzoia. In this year’s election the Western bloc will- to the last man- are all united behind one of their own, the great grandson of King Nabongo of Mumia- Raila Odinga.
The resurgent Mudavadi has excited, he is the 3rd most popular of the NASA leadership just behind Raila and Joho at political rallies. The contest between his two super groundsmen senator Bonny Khalwale and Oparanya for Kakamega Governor seat works to Raila’s advantage as almost 100% of registered voters will turn out to vote.
2. 25 Years since Death of Masinde Muliro
The election in August will be held on the 8th, marking the 25th anniversary since the demise of Masinde Muliro’s death. It is believed before his death, Prophet Elijah Masinde beseeched Muliro to join hands with Jaramogi in order to build a network of support for his eventual run for the presidency. Will this election be the culmination of Masinde Muliro and Elijah Masinde’s dreams, where a Luhyia descendant will be president ?
3. Joho Factor.
Ali Hasan Joho has earned the nickname 001 or the Sultan and with it, his clout as the face of Coast region. In an election where turn out will be the deciding factor, Joho’s grassroots mobilization acumen will be put to test come August 8th. In 2013, Mombasa County registered one of the lowest turn outs in the country at 67%. Kilifi’s turnout was not any better at 65%. On average, the turn out in Coast was at 75% while Raila’s average votes stood at 72%
In 2017, Raila Odinga’s path to victory will have to start with the average turn out growing to plus 81% and his basket averaging 75% of the Coastal votes.
4. Kalonzo Factor
A lot has been said about Kalonzo Musyoka. He has been called all sorts of names but give the devil his due. When it comes to walking the talk in terms of votes, no one does it better than Kalonzo; well apart from Raila. In 2007 even with the contest pitting Raila and Kibaki, Kalonzo managed to win Eastern province. In 2013, he delivered the Kamba nation to the Cord basket. I doubt anything has changed.
In 2013, the average turn out in the 3 Kamba counties of Kitui, Makueni and Machakos stood at 84% with Baba winning an average 85% of the vote.
Still in Eastern, Meru is an interesting county with the Miraa issue and the belligerence pitting senator Kiraitu Murungi and governor Peter Munya, there is likelihood Meru could play tilt numbers to NASA. Raila has made great inroads in Meru especially in Igembe, Tigania and Tharaka Nithi.
Overall in Eastern in 2013, the turn out averaged 87%. Raila’s average was 44% with Uhuru garnering 50%
In August, it is possible turn out could climb to 88% with Raila pockecting 56% and Uhuru 43%
5. Baba Factor
Arguably this is Raila’s last call. He knows it. We know it. Everybody knows it. As such, anybody who has ever had a passion for Raila presidency, more so in Nyanza, Western, Coast and North Eastern regions will be motivated to vote.
In 2013, the average turn out in Luo Nyanza was 92%. Kisii zones averaged 87%. In Luo Nyanza, baba got an average 98% of the vote. In Kisii, the average vote was 74%. Overall, turn out in Nyanza was 90% with Baba getting 86%
Most likely this year, the turn out in Luo Nyanza will climb to 96%. I don’t think the margin of victory will be any better than it was in 2013. In Kisii Nyanza, with a more united front around Raila, I predict the average Nyanza turn out climbing to 95% and baba scoring 92%.
6. The Rift Valley Juggernaut and Isaac Rutto.
Isaac Rutto has been handed the most difficult task of getting Raila over the hump in the South Rift. In 2013, the average turn out stood at 89%. Raila’s average score was 26% while Uhuru scooped an average of 68%.
Raila has to improve his fortunes in Trans Nzoia, a county he won by 46% to Uhuru’s 37%. The presence of Mudavadi and Rutto in his fold should help shore up the votes in the county and if he can stretch the win to 65%, then he will be in for a super finish.
I will not underestimate the impact Rutto may have in Bomet and Kericho. What Rutto does well is in his messaging and he hits hard on issues that affect the mwananchi. This may get NASA a bigger chunk of votes that CORD received in 2013. Back then in Bomet, Raila managed 5% and 7% in Kericho.
The Maasai will determine the mood of the electorate on the other side of the Rift Valley. Narok and Kajiado have been hotly contested regions in previous elections, but for one reason or the other, NASA seems to have an advantage with the Maasai.
This year, both Kajiado and Narok are Raila strongholds as Uhuru clings to a minority mt kenya immigrant communities in the two maa counties.
7. North Eastern/Muslim vote
This is set to play out differently, with all the alleged attrocities against the Muslim community during the Jubilee regime its expected that all Muslims will vote for Raila NASA to a man. This is a game changer that will send Uhuru to Gatundu
In 2013, Raila had a slight edge (49%) to Uhuru 47%. This year, the ground in Nairobi seem to have shifted and Rail will most likely garner 56% of the vote.
9. Central Province Onslaught.
In 2013, the average turn out in Central Kenya was 92% with Uhuru winning 95% of those votes. The fact Uhuru has not done abything of signficance to the residents of the area who are the most affected by the collapsed economy and the conclusion of ICC cases will most likely affect vote turnout, Mt Kenya voters have no compelling reason to vote Uhuru other than being a tribesmate.
The prediction we make is that if all the above assumptions hold, Raila will win the presidency with 53% of the vote.