By Nelson Omondi
Former ODM deputy Party leader, Musalia Mudavadi may stay in the political cold for a good number of years if he continues to ignore advices from opinion leaders and the current political heavy weights from his own backyard of western Kenya.
Musalia Mudavadi decamped from Railaâ€™s ODM in the run up to 2013 general election citing lack of internal democracy in the party, but unlike William Ruto, Mudavadi has proved to many of his supporters that he was a slow to learn student in that class that was being lectured by former PM Raila Amollo Odinga.
Current politicians from Musaliaâ€™s backyard of western who are in CORD are doing very well politically. Take for instance Ababu Namwamba whose political star continues to shine day and night despite a few hitches of supremacy battles.
Ababu joined the murky Kenyan politics in 2007 from a little know law background; Mudavadi was at that time a very senior politician in Kenya. This was just a few years after he was appointed by Former President Moi to be a vice president and subsequently Uhuru Kenyattaâ€™s running mate in 2002 general elections.
Despite all those factors about Mudavadi, it will be interesting to note that if Mudavadi was to vie for presidency against Hon. Namwamba in a two horse race, Namwamba will get 96% of votes casted in his favour, 2% spoiled and Musalia the remaining percentage or even less.
I chose Hon. Ababu in this analysis because of the age factor, just to bring the picture that Mudavadi is of age but no much political say in Kenya.
Railaâ€™s factor in Western politics is something that can never be ignored or wished away, Musaliaâ€™s former ground soldier the bull fighter, Bonny Khalwale clearly understood this and made the best decision of his life to â€˜decampâ€™ to CORD.
Hon. Khalwale is currently on form politically in fact scoring more higher than Mudavadi among voters in the western vote rich region. During the burial of former Homabay Senator, Otieno Kajwang, Mr. Khalwale openly advised Mudavadi to come back to ODM and learn more from Raila. Musalia should heed to this advice if at all he need to be relevant in the current Kenya politics.
During the burial of Fidel Odinga, son to former PM, Mudavadi was given a chance to speak on the podium and I quote one of his lines â€œI have no issue with my brother Raila Amollo Odinga and am ready to work with him againâ€ before even finishing that line the crowd forgot they were mourning, cheers and chants of â€œcome back homeâ€ filled the air. This shows that CORD faithful are ready to welcome Mudavadi home anytime any day. Unlike Ruto, Mudavadi has no serious differences with Raila Amollo Odinga or the formerâ€™s supporters.
Just like 2013, 2017 will be a two horse race between Raila and Uhuru; Musalia must choose where to belong to. He should focus on 2022 for his ambitions. His 2022 game plan must involve inheriting Railaâ€™s backyard of Nyanza after Raila takes off the gloves but this can only be possible if he support Agwambo in 2017.
If Musalia give his Support to Uhuru in 2017 then that will be the end of him in Kenyan politics, if he choose to vie again he will be viewed as a spoiler for Raila and that would be his end again. It would also be interesting to note that Jubillee has a well articulated power plan that covers up to 2027; can Musalia Mudavadi accept to be absorbed in this game plan so that he is supported by Jubillee in 2032?
The writings are on the wall, Mudavadi should come back to Cord or Moses Wetangula will be the undisputed Western Suprimo by the end of next general election. There are no permanent enemies in politics, we only have permanent interests. Mudavadiâ€™s interest here should be to inherit Railaâ€™s votes nothing more!
Mudavadiâ€™s only realistic chance of being a horse in the Kenyan general election is 2022 and their fore he should work out his way there. Cord gives him a very perfect home to rebuild and rebrand himself to 2022, the 2017 general election is going to be a turning point for many Kenyan politicians and Mudavadi cannot afford to throw this chance just like that! Itâ€™s all about post Raila game plan.
The writer is a Cord Supporter and upcoming political strategist