By Pedro Tish, PhD
I have been crunching the IEBC election data, and what is shocking is how the numbers favor CORD. Turns out that the impact of Ruto, Balala, Ngilu, Nyaga exit from ODM Pentagon was overrated.
Balala no longer has clout at the Coast. Joho took his Kingdom eons ago.Â Ngilu, Balala were just empty shells who are an embarrassment to their new-found allies in Jubilee, at least going by Uhuruâ€™s polls performance in their backyards. Ngilu didnâ€™t deliver the Kamba vote to Raila, zero, and she wonâ€™t do it for Jubilee given that they mistreated Kalonzo. For them its going to be anti-Uhuru protest. Clean sweep for CORD.
Nyaga, though he moved to TNA needed Uhuruâ€™s coat-tails, more than Uhuru did. That leaves us with only Ruto who left with some numbers.
But Ruto has since been replaced by Kalonzo in the poll mathematics. Remember Railaâ€™s poll numbers are intact beyond Ruto strongholds. His non-GEMA 2007 territory is intact. Uhuru inherits Kibaki’s GEMA strongholds. And even then more Merus will vote for Raila than they did in 2007, as evidenced by Kiraitu refusing to join Jubilee. He has more pointmen now, like Maoka Maore, Mpuri Aburi, Gitobu Imanyara, people he didnâ€™t have in 2007.
Kalonzo controls the Kamba vote at least going by 2007 vote tally when they voted for him almost to a man.
So out goes Ruto, in comes Kalonzo.
So whats the balance sheet? According to 2013 IEBC register,
Ruto controls Kalenjin in Rift Valley and out of R.Valley votes which total =Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1,705,742
Kalonzo, The Kamba , in Eastern and Diaspora beyond Eastern Â Â Â Â Â Â Â = Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1,556,656
Subtract the two numbers Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 149, 086
ALMOST ZERO SUM GAME
So CORDâ€™s challenge is how to replace the 149, 086? Thatâ€™s Easy.
- Lets agree that Raila tribal coalition outside Gema is intact, as in 07. So assuming Ruto left with Kale vote, all Ruto left with is1,705,742, but Kalonzo brought in 1,556,656, a balance of 149,086 which turns out is the net impact Ruto had in Jubilee. Remember what Kalonzo brings wasnâ€™t in Kibaki or Raila basket. So its like votes in a bunker somewhere which adds into Raila 07 arithmetic which drove Kibaki home. And as we have seen its impact is an additional 1,556,656, wasnâ€™t in either PNU(Read Uhuru) OR Raila 2007 tally.
- Merus, at least 15% can easily vote for Raila and thatâ€™s at worst. Thatâ€™s 120,000 votes of the 800,000 votes that Raila never got in 2007. So you see Rutoâ€™s net impact is under check.
- Baringo has about 200,000 votes which going by Ruto booing has some Moi control, who might take some to Amani. What is important is that Moi family might not beat Ruto in the Bread basket province, but at least we agree they can marshal at least 100,000 votes for Amani at worst case scenario in the entire Kalenjin land, he was President for 24 years.
- So adjust that 149,086 to about 50,000 given the Moi impact, and you see in the CORD vs Jubilee the gap due to Kalenjin is only 50,000 which can be made up elsewhere.
- Which means that Kalonzo was a worthy replacement to Ruto. All Raila needs is is 12.5% or 213,000 votes of the Kalenjin vote. And Rutoâ€™s departure would have been neutralized.
- Then factor in the idea that Kisiiâ€™s are more pro-Raila now than they were in 2007. CORD will mop-up more of the Gusiiland vote at higher percentages than in 2007, add their cousins next door the Kuria with 65,000 votes 80% of which will go CORD. Kisiis and Kuria had better Chemistry with Kibaki than Uhuru. At play isÂ 700,000.
}Â Nationally, Kibaki was a better known national leader having run 2 times and lost, plus he had been a minister since the 60s. He had better showings beyond GEMA regions than we expect Uhuru to post.
}Â Bukusuland 361, 009 is more CORDED this time than it was Orange in 2007.
}Â Even though Ruto left with some Kalenjin vote, he didnâ€™t leave with all of it, and even as little as 25%(426,435), would erase the damage Ruto is thought to have caused. Ruto was not a net loss. Kalonzoâ€™s entry was a net gain.
}Â Graphics to follow shortly.