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BASIC ANALYSIS: Raila’s Road to Statehouse, The Source of #10MillionStrong Votes

90 Comments


ROAD TO RAILA’S VICTORY Round One:
For starters the 2013 majority Kenyans (especially in Rift Valley and Mt Kenya) voted for Uhuruto just to rescue from the ICC. Now that ICC is buried Kenyans will now vote on issues and also tribe and that is why Bomet and the larger Meru are now battlegrounds.

NASA Stronghold (this even MamaNgina acknowledges).
1.Luhya-2.6m
2.Kamba-2.2m
3.Luo-2m
4.coast-1.8m
5.kisii-1m
TOTAL-9.6M

JUBILEE SURE BET!
1.Gema-2.8m
2.Kalenjin-2.3m
3.Embu/Mbeere+Meru)-1m
TOTAL-6.1M

BATTLE GROUND
1.Somali-1.4m
2.Maasai,Samburu,Turkana-1m

NOTE: Assume you gave jubilee half kamba votes and you deny NASA any kalenjin votes.on top of that give jubilee all somali votes and NASA all maasai votes the results is as follows:
NASA – 9.6M
JUBILEE – 8.5M

Now out of 2.3m kalenjine votes give NASA just half a million votes the results will be:
NASA:10.1M
Jubilee:8m

Now assume jubilee picks half a million votes from all NASA Strongholds the outcome is:
NASA-9.6
JUBILEE-8.5

Now assume NASA garners half a million votes outside its strong hold puting in mind that we gave jubilee half kamba votes the result is.
NASA-10.1M
JUBILEE-8M

FInally assume Jubilee only got half a million kamba votes the result is.
NASA:10.6M
JUBILEE:7.5M

Assume a70% voter turn out that is 13.3m.
NASA-55.78% (7.42M votes)
Jubilee-39.47% (5.26m votes)

Chebukati:Congratulations Raila odinga

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