JUBILEE TO REBASE GDP TO CREATE MORE ROOM FOR BORROWING
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) is in the process of changing the base year for calculating the GDP. This is expected to be completed by next year. Most likely they will even include the oil and gas sector in the national accounts.
The GDP will rise to over KShs 10 trillion which will make the KShs 5 trillion public debt reduce from close to 70% of GDP to below 50%. This will create fresh capacity for the government to take in more debt. It will also make it easier to achieve IMF’s fiscal deficit targets.
The rebasing was the first thing Jubilee did in 2013 to justify taking up loads of debt. While it is recommended to rebase GDP every five years, using it as a licence for debt accumulation is crooked economics.
By the time these guys run out of tricks and fiddling with the numbers, the country’s economy will be a total mess.
Clueless IMF praises Kenya’s economy
“Kenya’s economy is on the right path, International Monetary Fund team said yesterday.
It praised the country’s economic growth, saying it had achieved ‘significant progresses with real GDP growth accelerating to 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2018, from 4.9 percent in 2017.” – Star Newspaper of 7th August 2018
Counties spent 58.8 per cent of total expenditure on personnel emoluments during the first nine months of the 2017/2018 financial year.
“During the first nine months of FY 2017/18, the County Governments incurred Kshs.108.04 billion on personnel emoluments, representing 68.5 per cent of the total recurrent expenditure and 58.8 per cent of total expenditure. This was an increase from Kshs.90.95 billion incurred in the first nine months of FY 2016/17 when personnel expenditure translated to 43.3 per cent of the total expenditure.
Analysis of personnel emoluments as a percentage of total expenditure by county indicates that Kirinyaga, Meru and Elgeyo Marakwet Counties recorded the highest percentage at 78.9 per cent, 75.3 per cent and 74.7 per cent respectively.” Controller of Budget