By Arap Doyo
This year, the political landscape shall change. I predict the following to take shape;
1. A fall out in Jubilee that will shake the government in unprecedented levels. Parliament shall be divided into two; Uhuru/Raila versus William Ruto. The same scenarios shall occur with the Judiciary too. As for the executive, Uhuru shall reconstitute his cabinet to stamp authority and throw Ruto allied Cabinet Secretaries under the carpet. Rashid Mohammed, Aden Mohammed, Charles Keter, Farida Karoney, Simon Chelagui will be sent packing. A similar scenario shall happen with the Permanent Secretaries. Raila allied persons will be appointed as replacements. At the centre of the house of cards, will be Jimmy Wanjigi – a Raila strategist and Uhuru’s ally and a member of the billionare St Mary Alumni club. Jimmy doesn’t like Ruto evem a little. WSR locked up most of Wanjigi’s government money minting deals for himself.
2. The calls for a referendum shall increase. The referendum debate shall be a top agenda as teams for or against muscle out to influence public opinion. Uhuru/Raila/Kalonzo/Mudavadi as proposers and Ruto, the sole opposer.
3. Ruto’s role in 2007 PEV shall be revisited by Kikuyu political hegemony with a view to mobilize a critical mass against him. The Kiambaa Massacre narratives shall be played in central Kenya more than Joseph Gatutura or John Demathews songs. Photos of PEV, IDP shall be shared en mass online. Pages and groups to spearhead the narrative shall be in plenty. There will be an overdrive to make Ruto a ” common enemy” with the Mount kenya. The ” common enemy” fear factor has always been a motivator for the mountain to vote en mass. Raila has warmed up to the cold mountain. A replacement must be created.
4. Ruto allied figures shall feel the excesses of political power plays orchestrated by Uhuru/Raila Axis. House positions shall be revisited. Adan Duale and Kipchumba Murkomen are about to relinquish their positions courtesy of an impeachment.
5. Arrests will be made. Key persons allied to Ruto, businessmen included shall have all types of cases in court in the name of fighting corruption and impunity. KRA shall be on their neck demanding arrears amounting to millions. EACC will be emboldened just as DCI and ODPP are now.
6. Ruto’s sources of wealth shall be under increased scrutiny. Where the deep state has powers, Ruto’s income sources shall be blocked. All his influenced appointments in various Parastatal Boards shall be revoked. The System’s intelligence will keep leaking a scandal after another that has the slightest involvement of Ruto, to continue influencing a negative public opinion about WSR.
7. Governors serving the second terms shall try square out for a slice in the national political arena. Hassan Joho, Kivutha Kibwana, Jackson Mandago Wycliffe Oparanya and Amason Kingi shall be frequent names within the scene.
8. William Kabogo and Isaac Ruto shall make a comeback. William kabogo shall team up with Central kenya MPs to influence the 2019 Census results and the subsequent resource allocation, which will thrust him to a stronger political status with his kinsmen. As for isaac Ruto, he will be back to his original role of Ruto’s right hand man, a role he perfectly executed between 2009-2011 when the ICC cases and the Mau Forest debate were at its peak.
9. Gideon Moi shall be more visible this year. He will appear more in the media and across the country as he attends more weddings, funerals, launches and fundraisers. He will support Ruto rebels in their quest to cut to size WSR in rift Valley. Prof. Lonyangapuo, William kamket, Alfred Keter, Joshua Kuttuny, Tiren will be louder.
10. Ruto despite all the baptism by fire by Uhuru/Raila axis shall roar deep. He will be emboldened and will eventually call out his boss uhuru Kenyatta publicly. He shall release his resources accumulated over the years to orchestrate a vicious grassroot support network to challenge the axis. In equal measure, he shall seek to create formidable support base made up of current serving governors and MPs, his key bargaining point being his record of rewarding loyalties handsomely and his “ordinary hustler” tag fighting “dynasties” narratives. Western Kenya, Northern Kenya, The Rift valley and Coast Region will be WSR’s areas of massive interests.
11. Raila Odinga is going nowhere. His relevance shall not diminish. He will be on an overdrive to maintain his political standing ahead of 2022 elections. Headlines and splashes shall continue screaming his name. And his name shall, for another time, appear on the ballot. Retire ni wewe na watu wenu.