By Cliff Kondero
Politics is an interesting game. Time is everything. It is this rule that would make any reputable political analyst to mock the declaration by President Uhuru Kenyatta that Jubilee Alliance would rule for twenty years. Unless, a miracle happens, the Jubilee government cannot realize that threshold of time.
Assuming that everything is constant, and that both William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta are vindicated off their ICC tribulations, the Kenyan constitution puts the limitation on the number of times the president can hold office. Practically, this means that if Uhuru is elected in 2017, this would be the last time he is president of Kenya. The exit of Uhuru Kenyatta in 2022 means that William Ruto getsâ€™s the opportunity to become the presidential candidate. Here is the interesting thing about that. Naturally, human desires take vertical progression. The implication is that Uhuru Kenyatta, having been president of Kenya, would not accept to lower himself and deputize William Ruto. He will seek retirement after collecting his fat check. Perhaps the only favor he would do for William Ruto is fronting another Kikuyu novice to ticket with WR. The challenge is that it is debatable if the fronted ticket would sell. When the time comes, would the house of mumbi stand with the Kalenjins and vote Ruto in instead of their own?
Still, we expect that the Kenyan constitution will mature and that the evolvement of the constitution will lead to establishment of strong democratic ideals. The maturation of politics in Kenya has the capacity branding Mutahi Ngunyiâ€™s â€œtyranny of numbersâ€ null and void. If this is the case, then it would be wrong for the Jubilee government to propose someone else to run with Ruto. I am assuming Aden Duale. You tell me if that will sell.
The inability of Jubilee to rule for twenty years will also depend on the weakness of the government to organize the base, realize the outlined goals, and perform. Service delivery will kill or make the Jubilee Alliance. Assuming that the ICC cases are over before 2017, focus will be on how the two performed on not on the excuse of westerners imposing themselves in Kenya. Jubilee will have to count their eggs in raw numbers.
The fall of Jubilee might not even wait until 2022. Jubilee could be defeated by CORD sooner than later. However, for CORD to defeat Jubilee in 2017 internal reorganization must occur and life- sacrifices have to be made. First, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka MUST not run in 2017. There is a constituency of Kenyans that feel that the time is up for two. If Railaâ€™s gesture by the authorship of his book is to be taken seriously, then methinks that he is done. Raila is retiring. It remains to be seen if Kalonzo Musyoka would do the same.
While Raila is indicating the exit signal, it does not mean that he is out. Single-handedly, Raila is still the MOST influential politician alive in Kenya. Here is why if he backs a candidate with solid credentials, popular support, and a brand that sells beyond ethnic enclaves, CORD wins in 2017. My thinking is that Alfred Mutua- if he keeps doing what he doing and Ababu Namwamaba can form a formidable ticket that can beat Jubilee hands-down come 2017 in a free and fair election with Railaâ€™s and Musyoka acting as members of CORD technical bench.