In an elaborate plan seen by Sunday Standard, the emboldened opposition grouping projects to score 9,109,344 votes against Jubilee’s 7,297,800 votes. They project 85 per cent voter turn-out in the country —16,407,144 voters out of the estimated 19,302,522 registered voters.
From its core support base of the Luhya, Kamba and Luo,Kisii communities, NASA approximates that it will bag a total of 6.3 million votes — 1.7 million from Kambas, 1.7 million from the Luo, 2.2 million from the Luhya community and 0.7m from Gusii.
From the document, Jubilee will score zero votes from the Luhya community it has worked flat out to impress. It will also score zero votes among the Luo and Kamba.
NASA Pentagon member Musalia Mudvadi projected that they would get more votes than these “modest figures” when they launch massive campaigns in the next few weeks. He said they intend to knock on every door and ensure they win the presidential vote in the first round.
Another Pentagon member Moses Wetang’ula said they would penetrate the Jubilee stronghold and win over more voters. From the NASA document, the opposition expects to top up their votes from the Maasai (256,118), Somali (660,000), Mijikenda (680,000), Meru (74,000), Turukana (300,000),Teso (124,000) and Kuria (81,000) among others. The party is counting on its newly-minted principal Isaac Ruto to deliver at least 205,000 votes from the Kalenjin nation. In contrast, the analysis approximates that Jubilee will bag 4.8 million votes from its core support base of Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities.
In 2013 election, the two communities voted Jubilee man-to-man. From the Kikuyu’s, Jubilee will scoop the entire 3,035,621 of the voters who will turn out to vote. And from the Kalenjin Jubilee will get 1,845,162 votes. The document says the total number of registered Kikuyu voters is 3.5 million but projects that only three million will turn out to vote.
Similarly, the Kalenjin vote stands at 2.4 million according to NASA strategists, but only two million will turn out on Election Day.To add up to their 7.2 million votes, NASA believes Jubilee will get 64,000 votes from the Maasai, 183,000 from the Kisii, 340,000 from Somalis, 567,000 from the Merus, 128,000 from the Turkana, and 297,000 from the Embu among others.
In Nairobi, NASA approximates that the Kikuyu vote to stand at 706,000 followed by Kamba (381,000), Luhya (338,000) and Luo (324,000). The calculations done by a group of consultants engaged by the NASA principals ignores the impact of Jubilee inroads in Coast, lower Eastern and Western.
Presidential line-up. Jubilee for supper
In the 2013 polls and according to the official figures, President Uhuru Kenyatta beat Raila Odinga, the main opposition candidate by 832,887 votes with the help of ghost voters thanks to IEBC and Jubilee server.
Kenyatta scored 6,173,433 against Raila’s 5,340,546. On Thursday, NASA announced its presidential line-up with Raila at the top and his 2013 running mate Kalonzo Musyoka as his deputy. “This time, we are ahead of them in this game. We have done our mathematics and we have the fi gures ready with us. Trust me, on August 8, we will have Jubilee for supper,” ODM Director of Elections Junet Mohamed told Sunday Standard.