By Onyango Oloo
Recently, President Uhuru Kenyatta called on Raila Odinga to concede defeat if Jubilee wins the August 8th elections.
It was a clever propaganda ploy whipping up his supporters to prepare for his second term and apparently putting NASA on the “defensive” because Raila and his colleagues have been ratcheting up a scenario of an intricate plan to by Jubilee to rig the outcome using the IEBC, the state machinery and even the police, paramilitary and armed forces. Interior minister Nkaissery and other security big wigs have even gone ahead to map out the presumed hotspots- most of which fall in NASA strongholds.
The pro-government pundits have been preparing the country with the story that NASA wants to postpone the elections or even arrange for a post election regime because NASA fears that Jubilee will actualize their 70+1 boast when it comes to the eventual electoral outcome.
But going by developments on the ground both in Jubilee areas and NASA strongholds, the Uhuru-Ruto projections are counterintuitive and contradict the actual trends.
First of all, the ruling regime is in a big mess in their Central Kenya and Rift Valley bases. Thanks to the ill-advised decision to run two election campaigns in 2017-the upcoming battle of Uhuru to get an elusive second term and Ruto’s dream of taking over in 2022 – Jubilee has shot itself in the foot.
This is most evident with the emergence of strong independent candidates who are convinced that they were rigged out of the recent Jubilee nominations through the nefarious calculations of William Ruto and Mwangi Kiunjuri to lock out those likely to stand in the way of Ruto’s 2022 dreams- people like Kabogo and Peter Kenneth have come out and boldly stated this-Uhuru faces a situation that his vehicle Jubilee, may not have enough representatives in the National Assembly, the Senate and the County Assemblies. This must indeed cause many a sleepless night for Kamwana and Arap Singh .
When it comes to the Rift Valley which was assumed to be even more solidly pro-Jubilee than Central Kenya, cracks have emerged all over the vote rich, expansive region. In the first place, Gideon Moi although he has pledged to back Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017 is still insisting he will vie for Presidency in 2022, when Ruto expects to be crowned. The KANU popular base in Baringo and West Pokot is shifting towards NASA with devastating consequences for Jubilee. The fact that Buzeki has refused to step down and the Kalenjin conspiracy to lock out Okwara from Turbo is a foretaste of a possible election flare up on ethnic grounds in Uasin Gishu.
Elsewhere in the e the myth of ethnic solidarity among the Kalenjin is falling apart as the Keiyo, Marakwet exposing the much vaunted “tyranny of numbers” for the fiction that Mutahi Ngunyi created. On top of that, Isaac Ruto bolting to become the fifth principal in NASA was definitely not in Jubilee’s plans because a big chunk of his supporters- and not just his fellow Kipsigis tribe people may veer towards voting for Raila Odinga.
In Meru, Peter Munya vying for Governorship on a PNU ticket is practically in NASA-as well as his acolytes vying for Parliament including some influential stake holders who happen to be friends of mine. And even the Jubilee supporters in places like Imenti are disgusted by the failed promises to set up infrastructures- events that led Uhuru Kenyatta to cancel scheduled tours in the area.
In Tharaka Nithi there are unconfirmed reports of the masses shouting NASA! when they are exhorted to reply Jubilee. In Kirinyaga County getting Anne Waiguru whose name is synonymous with corruption, theft and tenderpreneneurship when she is facing the experienced and popular
Martha Karua may come a cropper.
In Nyeri, the incident which happened during the Madaraka Day celebrations rubbed some people the wrong way-and not just because of that childish, amateurish snub of Raila. I am made to understand from reliable sources that that the outgoing Governor has prepared a speech in which he was going to acknowledge the presence of the NASA flag bearer-they are old friends with the Governor showing solidarity during the dark days of the Moi dictatorship when Raila was locked up in detention. I am told that out of sympathy and due to the long simmering tensions between the Nyeri and Kiambu elites, a section of Nyeri may decide to go NASA.
Moving away from the mess in Jubilee-when we go to NASA strongholds we see nothing but solid support for Raila Amolo Odinga . Even in Luo Nyanza , where there have rumblings following the shambolic ODM nominations, even the independents are vowing to cast their ballot of the
NASA flag bearer . And despite the FORD-Kenya, Amani and ODM internal rivalry in Western, one thing which is crystal clear Luhyias and Tesos have no time for Jubilee so Ruto should stop wasting government resources in useless trips to Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma and elsewhere .
Just like Uhuru should forget about the Coast. The Dawidas, Mijikenda and other Coastal communities went out in large numbers to testify to the TJRC how Uhuru’s father, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and his sidekicks stole land in Taveta, Voi, Diani, Lamu and all over. They are anxious for NASA to get in so that their long standing historical injustices can finally be dealt with.
In 2013 Jubilee got a lot of votes from Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo . But these areas which are almost 100% Muslim, have borne the brunt of extra-judicial killings, torture and mistreatment under Jubilee’s so called war against terrorism -in reports documented by respected organizations like KHRC, IMLU, IPOA and
the state linked Kenya National Commission on Human Rights. Many of them are not likely to cast a vote for Jubilee-especially after Operation Usalama Watc h which targeted Somalis .
August 8th is an election for NASA to lose. There is no way that Jubilee is winning. NASA has learnt from Ghana and other places how incumbents rig elections and they are on a vigilant look out for any misdeeds, not just from Uhuru-Ruto but from IEBC and the state machinery.
But Jubilee may all along be planning a FASCIST plot to stay in power. From Ruto to Waiguru and other government top wigs they are afraid of being accountable for corruption, tenderpreneurship, Eurobond, NYS, Mafya, HustlerJet the 1 Trillion Public Debt, Al Shabaab Charcoal deal and other scandals.
It is NOT in their interests to LEAVE POWER because that is the only glue that they hang on.
What should NASA and democratic minded Kenyans do to forestall this?
I am aware that the Makodingos, Itunbis, Kiraithes and the NAS sleuths are reading this.
So I am NOT going to BROADCAST broad counter strategies in this blog.
All I will say cryptically is look at how the Burkina Be people forestalled the naked attempt by Dictator Blaise Compaore to sneak back in power after he was ousted in the historic West African land of Captain Thomas Sankara.
And from there, my beak is shut.