We may be the last generation to boast of Kenya’s place in East Africa as the ‘leading economy’. In Four years time, the economy of Tanzania will surpass Kenya if growth rate remains as it is now.
This is the sobering reality contained in a weekend presentation by Kenya’s foremost economist Dr. David Ndii to the opposition Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), debunking the ‘feel good’ propaganda that currently pervades Jubilee regime, powered by a complacent media environment.
Presenting a paper titled ”State of the Economy”, Dr. Ndii revealed that the most recent economic survey by respected policy think tanks and independent economic experts puts Kenya’s growth rate only ahead of Burundi in the region.
Of the 20 most growing economies in the world, Africa has 10 economies. Of these, Liberia leads at 10.4 % while Kenya is last at 5.2%. In East Africa, Tanzania and Rwanda’s growth rate leads at 7.2 % followed by DRC at 7.1% and Uganda at 6.2%. Kenya closes at 5.2 only ‘beating’ war-torn, landlocked Burundi – a failed state!
Kenya’s $54 billion economy is still bigger than Tanzania at $50 billion, but the growth difference translates to Tanzania catching up in just four years and expanding the lead to 20% by the year 2030.
Economists also predict that in the race to 2030, political turmoil is highly likely to rock Kenya than Tanzania. Should Tanzania’s October elections pass peacefully, Kenya is in deep shit, literally.
Kenya’s other Achilles heel isÂ eliteÂ corruption, which is estimated to cost the country over 200,000 jobs annually, adding more highly skilled and educated workforce into the reserve army of the unemployed from where, as is already happening, they can easily be exploited.
In 2014, Kenya’s debt stood at Ksh 2, 226 billion, nearly doubling from 2013 when the debt was sh 1,732 billion and way higher than 2012, 2011 and 2010 when the debts were 1,531, 1,348, and 1,104 billion shillings respectively. Egregiously, foreign debt has overtaken domestic debt, most of which are non-concessional and commercial in nature.
Servicing of these debts have also gone up, as interests shoots through the rooftop. As earlier stated, most of these debts are commercial, for example Eurobond and the billions in Chinese loans.
The whole presentation will published here. Keep reading Kenya Today.