By Solomon Baraka Sudi
The 20 year narrative will be sharply reduced
Upon seizing power Hitler proudly declared to the world that Nazi rule would last for 1,000 years and would surpass ‘the grandeur that was Rome and the glory that was Greece’.
Well, he only managed 12 and succeeded in bringing neither grandeur nor glory to Germany but death, destruction and infamy.
In a classic example of history coming in two, first as a tragedy and then as a farce, Uhuru has seen no profit in such a timeless lesson and gone on to declare arrogantly, like Hitler before him, that Jubilee will rule Kenya for 20 years.
Some in the opposition who are smarting from two consecutive defeats with a seemingly strong candidate have, in the wake of the presidents chest thumping, already resigned themselves to the fate of ’20 years of Jubilee’ narrative. The explanation given is that Uhuru heads an all-powerful political formation anchored in the corrupt bureaucracy, military, police, national intelligence, high finance, the electoral body and most importantly the high number of voters in the Mt. Kenya region. That with such seemingly insurmountable power, nothing can stop his will.
I refuse to go with that argument. No one is too powerful to be defeated. When Napoleon conquered and ruled Europe, many thought him invincible but poor and backward Russia brought his massive Grand Army to its knees and hastened his fall from emperor to gardener. We too can send this arrogant government packing in five years time.
Two conditions will however need to be present: the incumbent has to be weakened and we have to be strengthened. In other words, the structure has to be made rotten and our kick made very strong so that when we hit in the next elections the whole structure will come tumbling down like a house of cards.
How do we weaken the Jubilee coalition?
Like Achilles of the Greek mythology Jubilee has its vulnerable spots. We need to identify them and concentrate our forces and energy there. Its flanks in the Rift Valley; parts of Kisii and in North Eastern are weak. We need to clip them away like in 2007. The alliance is on the path of self destruction. We need to accelerate that. We need to blacken it before the whole nation and the world.
Every statement and action must be in pursuit of this goal. It cannot rot however, when in a bid to appear ‘civil’ we offer it misplaced praises. That’s why I consider Raila’s endorsement of Uhuru’s appointment of Muthaura an unforgivable tactical blunder. Nothing should be sanitized by us; that should be the work of Jubilee propagandists, and apologists.
In this Jubilee wrecking pursuit we must be ruthless and employ all tools within our reach. No method should be considered extreme or immoral. As Cicero put fittingly, ‘extremism in defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in pursuit of justice is no virtue’.
Our opponents play it rough and we gain nothing by appearing good. In Kenya observation of laws to the last dot is taken as naivety even by the custodian of the laws themselves. Raila should therefore go back to his former self. This incessant panting and puffing after titles for dead men and retirees like ‘statesman’ should end.
Secondly, we have to strengthen ourselves so that come next elections our kick will be powerful enough to bring the whole Jubilee structure down. A strong formation is a well organized one. In any political contest victory goes to the most organized party regardless of its size. It was no accident that in the French and Russian revolutions the victor parties, Jacobins and Bolsheviks respectively, were the smallest but the most organized. On two occasions we have relied more on Railas personality and less on organization. On both occasions we’ve been defeated. Even rigging requires superior organization for those who believe we’ve been rigged out. In any case charisma has its sell by date if it is not fed with success.
In 2002, 2005 and 2007 Raila could leave the nation spellbound with his charisma. That is no more. Two electoral defeats, age and five years of intense negative exposure from the media have eroded his mystique. Next elections will be determined more by how well we are able to organize and mobilize our supporters rather than the personality of our candidate.
From the 2009 census the Raila coalition of Western, Nyanza, Coast, parts of Rift Valley, parts of Eastern and parts of North Eastern is the most powerful in Kenya in terms of raw numbers but thanks to disorganization the numbers have not been translated into votes as effectively as the Mt. Kenya coalition. With better organization therefore victory shall be ours. Going forward, this will have to be addressed if we hope to end this ’20 years Jubilee rule’ narrative.