By Kiberenge Jnr
The common determinant of political formations and equations in Kenya is Raila Odinga. Political pundits, analysts and scientists will be crossing their fingers and splitting their hairs waiting, guessing and wondering whether Raila’s somasault has any implication on the 2022 political matrix. But suffice is to say that Raila’s famous handshake with Uhuru has completely disorganised the political terrain and thrown every one into confusion.
Ruto’s ambition was pegged on a sustainable relationship between Kikuyus and Kalenjins. The two communities can stick together as long the enemy is Raila. It’s hard to galvanise the Kikuyu/Kalenjin vote if Raila is not the enemy, so to speak. More so, Kikuyus are known to turn out in large numbers if they are voting to defeat Raila. They don’t vote for Uhuru because they love him. No. They only vote to defeat Raila.
9th March, 2018 is the day Ruto will always curse in his life- the day of the HANDSHAKE. Everything was well on course until that memorable day. He was just 2cm away from the Presidency until he witnessed from the window of his Harambee house Annex office as his Presidential ambition was being terminated with a handshake on the steps of the Main Harambee house which is directly opposite.
A few days before that, Raila had been in a funeral in Kipkelion, Kericho County where he warned; “Ruto kama anataka kuwa Rais atanihitaji mimi”,which Ruto lieutenants dismissed. If I were William Ruto I would have eaten humble pie, call Raila and sit him down for a talk. It was categorically clear Raila knew what was coming ahead. And by the way, put yourself in Uhuru’s shoes: Would you ignore an idea to switch from the Presidency to the premiership at the end of your term, just to make Ruto President? No !.
As I said in another article here, Ruto fighting the system is a mission impossible, and it’s self destructive. Ruto’s betrayal was so easy, more easy than any other in the history of betrayals in Kenya. Why? One: Because the system allowed him to pick something here, something there and something every where. Massive evidence of graft, theft, misuse of office is somewhere on somebody’s desk, being updated daily.
Two: The state is still in custody of evidence against him in ICC charges which was terminated but can be re-investigated and re-tried. This basically means that it’s suicidal for Ruto to wage a war against the system, it’s practically impossible. His options are limited, he is held hostage- he cannot get out and he cannot fight from within.
My advice to DP Ruto: Just shut up, be friendly to UhuruRaila,support the handshake and canvass for a slot in the next government- probably a Deputy PM , and live to fight another day.