BETTING, THE MOST CALCULATED CON GAME IN KENYA
Betting in Kenya has become a crazy addiction that gives false hope to many Kenyans seeking easy and fast money, by spending thousands of their cash in hopes of getting rich fast.
What’s not known to most Kenyans, as betting rule goes, the house always wins, in the long run, 99.9% of Betters will lose all their Bankroll (Starting Cash).
We have divided this investigative segment into 2 parts;
Part 1. Understanding the Basics in Betting.
Part 2. Using Knowledge in Part 1 to understand the tricks Betting Sites use to con Kenyans millions in Jackpots.
Part 1: Understanding the Basics
To understand how people get conned off their cash, you first have to understand the most important rule in Betting, Odds vs Chance.
What is Odd:
This is the number given by a betting site that shows the payout of a given game.
i.e. 1.2, 2.0.
Taking 2.0 as the odds, placing a Sh. 100 Stake, will lead to payout cash of Sh. 200 from the betting sites.
What is Chance:
This is the calculated risk of a certain game to come out the way you are predicting.
i.e Barcelona vs Celta Vigo in la liga, the chances for Barcelona winning is much higher than Celta Vigo. This can have an arbitrary percentage value, i.e. Barcelona – 90% chance of winning and 10% chance for Celta Vigo to win.
Most Kenyans do not understand the relationship between Odds vs Chance, and this is where Betting sites takes advantage of majority of Kenyans.
Why Odd vs Chance is important:
Considering a game of Manchester United vs Manchester City, the percentage chance you predict for Man Utd to win the game is 40%, Draw about 20% and Man City to win about 40%. The betting sites then gives an odd of 2.0 for Man Utd and 2.0 for Man City and 3.0 for the Draw. The main question to ask is, are you losing your cash when you place the bet or do you have a higher hand in the bet.
To get the answer to the above question, we have to do a basic mathematical calculation as will be shown below:
ODD Your Predicted Chance
Man Utd 2.0 40%
Draw 3.0 20%
Man City 2.0 40%
The answer is quite simple, you have to understand what the chance the betting odd points to, and compare it with your own chance, as shown below in more detail.
Understanding the chance a given Odd in betting site gives:
Let’s start with a simple odd of 2.0, if you place a bet of Sh. 100, you will get Sh. 200 payout, meaning Sh. 100 is the profit. This means that if you fail in the 2nd bet and lose Sh. 100, you will not lose or gain anything, as it will be covered by the profits of the 1st bet.
Thus, 2.0 odds means a chance of 50%.
Example 2 (Further Explanation):
If you bet on 10 games, each with an odd of 2.0 with Sh. 100, and win 50% of the games i.e. win 5 games and lose 5 games, you will have:
Total Amount needed for the 10 bets: 100 x 10 = Sh. 1,000
Total Profit From 5 winning bets: (100 x 2.0) x 5 Games = Sh. 1,000 = Sh 500 Profit
Total Loss in the 5 Losing Bets: 5 x 100 = Sh. 500
Thus, you will have lost Sh. 500 from the 5 losses, but will make Sh. 500 profit from the 5 winning bets, thus you will not have made any profit or loss.
Thus, for an odd of 2.0 it means if you have a 50% win rate, you will not get a profit or loss, but winning higher than 50% will be profitable and winning lower than 50% will turn out to losses.
Back to Man Utd vs Man City:
Considering we now know Odd of 2.0 means you need higher than 50% win rate in that game for profit, we can now compare that with our Predicted Chance, if our Predicted Chance is lower than the Betting Chance, then it means we will be making a loss, as shown in the table below:
ODD Betting Chance from 2.0 Odd Your Predicted Chance PROFIT/LOSS
Man Utd 2.0 50% 40% (lower than 50%) Loss
Man City 2.0 50% 40% (lower than 50%) Loss
This is where Betting sites take advantage of Kenyans, they know people don’t view betting in this perspective, thus they will always underprize their bets, which is why 99.99% of Kenyans will lose their investments in the long run.
Before placing any bet, make sure you understand whether the odds given will make you profit or loss in the long run.
Table of Odds vs Win Rate Needed to guide you on profitability of your bets
This table will guide you to make sure you are not losing money based on the ODDS placed in the site vs The win rate needed so you don’t make a loss or profit. So that if your own prediction chance is higher than the win rate chance listed next to the given odd, you will be making profits in the long run.
Common Win Rates with their respective odds in a game.
Win Rates – Odd
5% – 20.0 30% – 3.35 55% – 1.80 80% – 1.25
10% – 10.0 35% – 2.85 60% – 1.68 85% – 1.18
15% – 6.65 40% – 2.48 65% – 1.55 90% – 1.11
20% – 5.00 45% – 2.20 70% – 1.43 95% – 1.05
25% – 4.00 50% – 2.00 75% – 1.33 100% – 1.00
Common Odds with respective Win Rates in a game:
ODD – Win Rates
1.02 – 98% 1.27 – 79% 1.50 – 67% 1.90 – 53% 2.30 – 43% 2.90 – 35%
1.05 – 95% 1.3-77% 1.55 – 65% 1.95 – 51% 2.40 – 41% 3.00 – 34%
1.10 – 91% 1.37 – 75% 1.60 – 63% 2.00 – 50% 2.45 – 40% 3.10 – 33%
1.20 – 83% 1.40 – 71% 1.65 – 61% 2.10 – 47% 2.50 – 39% 3.30 – 30%
1.22 – 82% 1.43 – 70% 1.70 – 59% 2.15 – 46% 2.60 – 38% 3.40 29%
1.24 – 81% 1.44 – 69% 1.80 – 55% 2.20 – 45% 2.70 – 37%
1.25 – 80% 1.45 – 69% 1.85 – 55% 2.25 – 44% 2.80 – 36%
Thus using the table above;
We can now know whether betting on Man City vs Man Utd to be a draw with an odd of 3.0 is profitable or loss, it will easily be done by comparing the betting chance vs your own predicted chance. i.e.
Betting Site 3.0 34% (from 3.0 odd in table above)
You 3.0 20% (From your own calculation or how you view of the chance for a draw yourself)
Thus, by comparing the betting chance and your’re chance above, it means the betting site have a much higher chance for the game than you, meaning, if you are accurate on your prediction, the betting site have underprized the bet, and you will make losses in the long run if you bet. You’re prediction of 20% chance requires odd of 5, thus, you lose an odd of 2 for every shilling if you place the bet.
PART 2. UNDERSTANDING ACCUMULATOR BETS & CON GAMES USED IN JACKPOTS
Accumulator Bets commonly known as multibets are bets in which multiple games are bet or accumulated in one betting slip.
This is one of the most misunderstood bets by Kenyans since most have totally no clue what it means or how it is calculated.
In accumulator bets, if you put 2 bets of 2.0, and place stake of Sh. 100, this is how payout is calculated:
2.0 x 2.0 = 4.0
4.0 x 100 = Sh. 400
To most Kenyans, they don’t understand the payout is calculated by multiplying the odds by each other. i.e. 2.0 x 2.0.
The logic behind multibet is the same as normal probability, if you place 2 or more bets in a single bet, the chance for the multibet will be equal to multiplying the chances of the individual games in the bet.
So for 2.0 x 2.0, it’s total chance is also equal to 50/100 x 50/100 = 25%.
Since you’re chances have been been reduced by a margin, the odd also gets increased by the same margin.
This is a very simple concept but a lot of Kenyans have been duped by Betting sites, more so in Jackpots, where they are promised millions which they think is a great offer, but on calculation, they are losing millions compared to normal betting.
Calculation of Jackpot
For most jackpots, there are 13 games, the average game in a jackpot has an average odd of:
1 X 2
2.75 3.20 2.50
Using the table provided above, it shows you the Chances for the game are:
1 X 2
37% 32% 39%
Thus, just by observing the chances, it shows this are really tough games to predict, where even the players themselves don’t know how the outcome will be. You are thus forced to pick the worst games in their site and place a bet on it, in simple it is a total recipe for disaster.
Using the above odds, considering 6 games are won by 1, 4 games are won by 2 and 3 games come out as a X(Draw):
The total odds for the accumulator will be calculated as:
2.75 x 2.75 x 2.75 x 2.75 x 2.75 x 2.75 x 3.20 x 3.20 x 3.20 x 3.20 x 2.5 x 2.5 x 2.5 x 2.5 x2.5
Considering, most sites ask you to place a Sh. 100 stake for the jackpot, it means you are supposed to get a payout of:
553,612.8125 x 100 = Sh. 55,361,281.
BUT, instead of getting Sh 55,361,281 most Jackpots give from Sh 5 million and the highest thus far is around Sh 40 million. You are thus easily conned as high as Sh. 35 million.
“It is like betting on an odd of 2.0, but instead of getting Sh. 200 payout, they give you Sh. 130 because you didn’t notice you are getting conned.”
This is the biggest con in Kenya and most people haven’t figured it out yet.
And since the total chance for the accumulator is the multiplication of all the single chance for the single games, it means, an average Jackpot has a winning chance of:
0.37 x 0.37 x 0.37 x 0.37 x 0.37 x 0.37 x 0.32 x 0.32 x 0.32 x 0.39 x 0.39 x 0.39 x 0.39
= 0.00000194499 or 0.0001944499%.
To get how small of a chance this number is:
The average annual death rate in Kenya is 7 in every 1000 people:
This is also the same as: 7 / 53 per 1000 people every week.
i.e. 0.132/1000 * 100 = 0.0132% per week.
Thus, a Kenyan is 69 times more likely to die in a week than winning the weekly jackpot.
THUS, IT IS MUCH BETTER TO BET ON YOUR DEATH THAN BETTING ON JACKPOT.
NB: Other people will state that they do it because of the bonuses, considering after you get 12 games right, you are given around Sh. 1,250,000, you still lose a lot of cash that you deserved to win which is Sh. 20,131,374 thus, they have just taken Sh. 18,881,374 from you.
Thus jackpot is the biggest con game in the country, and they have managed to fool millions of Kenyans into playing it while they make millions out of the many poor people seeking easy riches.
Other reason why Jackpot is the worst betting strategy:
You are forced to bet on the 13 games which they select for you, thus, you have to bet on even the games you don’t want to bet on.
When you miraculously win the 13 games with other people, you will share the jackpot price with the number of people, thus if 5 people win the Sh. 40 m price, they will share it to get Sh. 8m each.
What most people don’t know is that most sites have a maximum cap of Sh. 1m payout on a single betting slip, others having it increased to Sh. 10m, thus its even much better to CREATE YOUR OWN JACKPOT: and bet on your own favorable games, i.e. 9 games will bring a return of close to Sh. 800,000 given an average odd of 2.75, which is much higher than the jackpot one, where people getting 10 games right get around Sh 5,000, a loss of around Sh. 790,000.
As seen from this, it is directly visible why there are so many companies in the betting scene, most Kenyans are easily duped in betting as the Betting sites are sure 99.99% of Kenyans will lose their investments in the long run while trying to pursue the rush for easy riches.
We should share this to all our brothers and sisters playing jackpot so that they should understand how they are getting conned everyday by this scrupulous Betting Sites.