By Darius Okolla
Let’s face it, we are on an economic free fall. Such crises often lasts a few years to decades and the effects stalls mobility for generations. We obv don’t know how long this will last but it’ll be painful and prolly the worst financial crisis any of us will ever live through. Despite all the public posturing by Rotich the question still begs what is the true status of this economy? This economy is in a huge fiscal mess than we as a nation are willing to admit. On March 6th Rotich admitted govt is broke, then denied, then admitted to Senate FC on 7th.
This free fall is squarely blamed on 🍻 his crazy administration and his family at the helm. Economic downturns tends to be a general economic decline defined by stock market price declines, massive unemployment/retrenchment and a general decline in the financial markets. The huge counterfeit goods market, dying manufacturing sector, corruption, and the debt addiction by the govt are behind this madness. Economists will tell you that when employers freeze hiring & start massive layoffs, then this is a clear indication of an economy in recession.
This mess won’t affect everyone, though. With 10,000 dollar millionaires while 900k Nairobians are hungry; you’ll be starving while others rack up millions. You’ll have peanut-salo jobs while your tenderpreneurs boss discusses 300M deals. Inequality will spike tenfold. So even as you agitate keep in mind we’ve flown over the cliff; the criminal aristocracy won’t budge. 2022 is too far out; the economic shitstorm in between is a far bigger fish to fry; between now and 2022 the economics is going to alter the politics & livelihoods irreparably.
We haven’t even hit rock bottom yet as the privatizations, austerities & other neoliberal IMF-induced mass ish kicks in. Btw govt didn’t lay off 39k in Feb twas at least 3x-source. Meanwhile Rotich seeks to cut County budget while they altered privatization procedure. Seen that? At a personal level, better prepare for the hard financial times ahead. There is no magic bullet that can fix this crisis, of course. There are basic steps one can do in little/large ways to make sure you’re as ready as one can be now that the financial storm is making landfall. Given that our economy is in a free fall, meaning that we aren’t creating new wealth yet we keep on borrowing, the main costs of a recession will be;
Falling real incomes
Less Tax – more debt
Permanently lost output.
The middle-class you keep bashing just like most Kenyans rely on -ve copying skills. They’ll downgrade their lives quietly rather than pick a fight with 🍻 & his sewer rat family. No one’s specially chosen to fight/die for you. Not @bonifacemwangi not @OkiyaOmtatah. They aren’t. Watch Your Pockets; protect your fam moneywise. Keep as much liquid cash as you can; avoid unnecessary life upgrades; avoid major non-critical purchases; call a siblings meeting and at the very least be honest about cash/income positions. Plan for at least half a decade.
Layoffs: In recession even the best can’t secure their jobs; layoffs are inevitable. And they may happen to you; your S/O; pals, fam. There’s no secure job, plan for the unthinkable. Firms are quietly firing in thousands, almost none are hiring. Economic scarring: The long-term impacts of the recession. A new report looks at how recessions can lead to “scarring”–long-lasting damage to individuals and the economy more broadly–and how a temporary boost in govt spending can help stem the damage. However now that spending on projects has been halted we are stuck. https://www.epi.org/publication/bp243/
Going by Social media commentary over the past few months, mental health is tanking. #EconomicDownturns take more than a financial toll; research directly linked 10k suicides to ’07-10 economic recession in North America & Europe; in EU-6.5% ⬆, CAN-4.5% ⬆ & US-4.8% ⬆. Mental health will worsen as jobs dry up, cash shrink & layoffs spike. Consider lifestyle change; Keep cash or liquid assets. Overhaul your spending regimen. Goal? Long term survival in the event of job loss. In these crazy economic times, it’s critical to look for ways of shielding/cushioning yourself before you’re hardest/longest hit.
The tenderpreneurs, the 🍻 sewer rat family, stock market, & the corrupt elite will survive/recover, but for millions out here this decline shrinks opportunities, rips financial stability, and knock their ability to pay bills and create assets; increases dependency ratio, lowers savings. The social and economic mess born from this will reverberate through at least 2 generations; remember generational mobility convo, yeah? This will last a while; shield your fam & siblings; at least you owe them that much. The excuse that, oh in our fam we don’t talk cash stuff, will have you talking about it as you fundraise for tragedy; don’t wait to get there. Fasten your belt that’s if this govt hasn’t stolen it.